011  
FXUS01 KWBC 230800  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2019  
 
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 23 2019 - 12Z MON FEB 25 2019  
 
...HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES INTO  
SATURDAY FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...  
 
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...  
 
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE  
MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
   
..HEAVY SNOW LIKELY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN  
TODAY AS THEY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS  
POTENT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MYRIAD OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. FIRST, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL  
CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE  
VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT, CREATING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALREADY  
OVERSATURATED GROUND. A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN  
PLACE FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WHERE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL  
CAUSE MORE DANGEROUS FLOODING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WELL. THE STORM PREDICTION  
CENTER HAS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED A MODERATE RISK FOR NORTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI, NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA, AND SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE,  
WHERE STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES, STRONG WINDS, AND HAIL ARE ALL  
FORECAST. THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY END  
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST  
ON SUNDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION, DRYING  
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH IS POSSIBLE FOR THE  
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE COLD  
FRONT PASSES.  
 
NORTH OF THIS LOW, WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS, MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES REGION. A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED  
TODAY IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST,  
AND SNOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION,  
WHERE 12 TO 18 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW IS FORECAST. AS THE SURFACE  
LOW STRENGTHENS, IT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, WHICH COMBINED WITH  
THE SNOW WILL CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. EVEN AFTER THE  
ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, HIGH  
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW  
THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN IS  
FORECAST, WITH OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE LIKELY IN WISCONSIN  
AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN. DIFFICULT TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES ARE TO  
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. HIGH WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY  
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
 
IN THE NORTHWEST, THE WINTRY PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER UPPER  
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND LEAD TO  
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH MAINLY  
RAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, SNOW COULD MIX IN EVEN IN  
THE LOWER ELEVATION CITIES (SEATTLE AND PORTLAND FOR EXAMPLE) WITH  
THE PERSISTENT COLD CONDITIONS. WHERE RAIN DOES FALL, IT COULD BE  
HEAVY AT TIMES, SO A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN  
PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COASTS ON  
SUNDAY. IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE OREGON CASCADES, SNOW IS  
LIKELY TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CAN EXPECT  
HEAVY SNOW OF 1 TO 3 FEET.TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN  
AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD  
TEMPERATURES (20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS) IS EXPECTED BY  
SUNDAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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