914  
FXUS01 KWBC 250809  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
308 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019  
 
VALID 12Z MON FEB 25 2019 - 12Z WED FEB 27 2019  
 
...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA, WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE...  
 
...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED IN THE CASCADES, SIERRA NEVADA, AND HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST...  
 
...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO OVER 40 DEGREES BELOW  
AVERAGE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...  
 
...HIGH WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST TODAY,  
WHICH COULD CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE GREAT LAKES...  
 
A RELATIVELY WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE PLUME WILL TAKE AIM AT  
THE NORTHWEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK, WHILE AN  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR WASHINGTON STATE AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.  
THIS WILL HELP CREATE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF BOTH RAIN  
AND SNOW. ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST,  
HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL IN PLACE THERE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL  
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL COME IN LATE ON TUESDAY, SHIFTING THE AXIS  
OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO MAINLY NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE BAY AREA. IN TERMS OF SNOW, THE SIERRA  
NEVADA WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,  
WITH OVER 4 FEET OF SNOW FORECAST! THE OREGON CASCADES COULD SEE 1  
TO 2 FEET OF SNOW, AND THE SHASTAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 FEET  
OF SNOW. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE EVEN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS (INCLUDING  
PORTLAND) DUE TO THE PERSISTENTLY COLD TEMPERATURES.  
 
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,  
IT WILL BRING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS OVER 40 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY! HIGH  
TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ARE LIKELY INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND  
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.  
 
AFTER TREKKING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, THE LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL EXIT THE  
U.S. TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL  
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE, SO HIGH WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE--WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN  
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS, AND IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE  
DAY ON MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY, AND COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS,  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ALL DAY.  
 
ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD  
THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT  
APPROACHES AND THE FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS, WITH A FEW  
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH, A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW (1 TO  
4 INCHES) WILL ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS  
MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES  
BY TUESDAY.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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