847  
FXUS01 KWBC 262008  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
307 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2019  
 
VALID 00Z WED FEB 27 2019 - 00Z FRI MAR 01 2019  
 
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE LOWER ELEVATION RAINS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL TO  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA..WHILE VERY HEAVY SNOWS ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE  
SIERRA...  
 
...LIGHTER SNOWS LIKELY TO SPREAD FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...MUCH OF NY STATE INTO CENTRAL  
NEW ENGLAND...  
 
...WET WEATHER EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF  
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...  
 
...MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN  
TO CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR LIKELY BY  
THE END OF THE WEEK...  
 
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY BLOCKED  
FROM ALASKA TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS PERIOD...WITH  
A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A CLOSED LOW OFF  
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COASTS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT  
WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA WHERE ANOMALOUS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR  
MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER ELEVATION HEAVY RAINS AND  
POTENTIAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA...WHILE VERY HEAVY SNOW...MEASURED IN FEET...LIKELY  
THROUGH THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN CASCADES. WHILE THE HEAVIEST  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA...THE ABOVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY  
SNOWS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM NORTHWEST  
WYOMING INTO CENTRAL TO FAR EASTERN IDAHO.  
 
A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD  
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. ENHANCED VERTICAL VELOCITIES TO THE  
NORTH OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY BROAD REGION OF MODERATE  
TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.....WESTERN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK  
STATE AND INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.  
 
WHILE SNOWY WEATHER DOMINATES THE NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE  
NATION...WET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF THE NATION FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF  
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WET  
WEATHER IS FOCUSING TO THE NORTH OF A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED  
FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE  
VALUES ALONG AND AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SUPPORTING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS.  
 
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THIS FORECAST PERIOD  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL PERSIST. MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY ACROSS THESE  
AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING  
LIKELY IN THE -25 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS...WHILE DAY TIME HIGHS STRUGGLE HERE TO REACH 10 ABOVE.  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOME BY MID WEEK ACROSS THIS  
REGION..BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHWARD  
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER VORTEX SINKS SOUTH INTO  
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED  
BLOCKING PATTERN FROM ALASKA TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  
 
ORAVEC  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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