639  
FXUS01 KWBC 021951  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
250 PM EST SAT MAR 02 2019  
 
VALID 00Z SUN MAR 03 2019 - 00Z TUE MAR 05 2019  
 
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TONIGHT IN CALIFORNIA, WITH  
HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND INTO PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...  
 
...SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...  
 
...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE  
NORTHEAST...  
 
...BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST  
OF THE ROCKIES...  
 
A STORM SYSTEM ENTERING CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO  
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS TO PARTS OF THE  
STATE. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND SENSITIVITY OVER BURN SCAR  
REGIONS, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND UPSLOPE/LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS OF THE  
SIERRA NEVADA. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA, A FOOT OR MORE  
OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST INTO THE  
SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS THIS EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL  
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL GREAT  
BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE COLORADO ROCKIES THROUGH TOMORROW  
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES  
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT.  
 
AS THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW, A  
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL  
LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST, ALONG WITH  
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. WPC HAS A SLIGHT  
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE  
SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THIS REGION WITHIN A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK  
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE  
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE CONTINUING INTO  
MONDAY.  
 
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD FEATURE  
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC  
AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERALLY 4 TO 6  
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT  
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE FROM  
ROUGHLY THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY  
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THE EXACT AXIS  
OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DEPENDS HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM  
SYSTEM, BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAY IMPACT SOME OF  
THE BIGGER CITIES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS WELL FROM  
PHILADELPHIA TO BOSTON. THERE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE A REGION OF  
MIXED PRECIPITATION OR SLEET WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN  
RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY ALONG OR JUST EAST OF I-95.  
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. TODAY WILL  
SPREAD EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS USHERING A VERY COLD ARCTIC  
AIRMASS INTO MOST OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MUCH BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST TO  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY, EXTENDING INTO THE MIDWEST AND EAST  
COAST STATES BY MONDAY. THE CORE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
FROM MONTANA TO KANSAS, WHERE A LARGE AREA OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE  
VALUES OF 40 TO 50+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE FORECAST! BUT EVEN AS  
FAR SOUTH AS TEXAS, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE IN THE 20S TO 30S WHICH  
COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORDS FOR MANY PLACES, WITH RECORD LOW  
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL U.S.  
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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