797  
FXUS01 KWBC 072014  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
313 PM EST THU MAR 07 2019  
 
VALID 00Z FRI MAR 08 2019 - 00Z SUN MAR 10 2019  
 
...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BRINGING HEAVY SNOW, STRONG WINDS  
AND NEAR BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTING THE PORTIONS  
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GULF COAST  
STATES...  
 
...DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...  
 
THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NATION  
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY  
FOCUS INITIALLY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST AS A COUPLE OF SEPARATE  
STORM SYSTEMS BRING RATHER WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE  
ROCKIES. HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN INCLUDING AREAS OF THE CASCADES, THE SIERRA-NEVADA, AND  
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY WHERE AS MUCH AS AN  
ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE.  
 
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, THE ATTENTION WILL THEN BEGIN TO  
DRAMATICALLY SHIFT TO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A  
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OUT ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW CENTER WILL DEEPEN AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TO THE NORTH  
AND WEST OF THIS LOW TRACK, A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND  
OVERSPREAD A LARGE AREA OF THE DAKOTAS AND AREAS EAST INTO THE  
UPPER MIDWEST INCLUDING MINNESOTA. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP WITH TIME AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER, AND THIS  
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY OF  
THESE AREAS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS  
ARE LIKELY, AND AREA ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DANGEROUS WITH  
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY.  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY OF AS MUCH AS A FOOT WITH  
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE  
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND  
UPPER MIDWEST IN ADVANCE OF THIS EXPECTED WINTER STORM.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, THE CONCERN WILL BECOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
SEVERE WEATHER AS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF WARM, MOIST  
AIR OCCURS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LOW CENTER, AND OUT AHEAD OF A  
STRONG COLD FRONT. MANY AREAS OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY WILL SEE HEAVY RAINFALL, AND PERHAPS AT LEAST SOME  
LOCALIZED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GOING THROUGH SATURDAY.  
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER CONCERN EVOLVING FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS REGION EAST  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST STATES AND PORTIONS OF  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND ALSO  
SOME TORNADOES ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY.  
 
A CONCERN ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE  
VERY DRY AIR AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE  
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONCERNS FOR WILDFIRES AS THE FIRE DANGER  
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTH. THE THREAT  
SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS WEEKEND WHEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES  
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING THE PLAINS.  
 
ELSEWHERE, THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GENERALLY BE CHILLY FOR ANOTHER  
DAY OR SO, AND THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW ON  
FRIDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND  
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM UP THIS  
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACH THE MIDWEST, BUT ONE  
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM  
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NOTABLY COLDER.  
 
ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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