549  
FXUS02 KWBC 110619  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
219 AM EDT MON MAR 11 2019  
 
VALID 12Z THU MAR 14 2019 - 12Z MON MAR 18 2019  
 
...HEAVY SNOW/WIND THREAT TO EXIT THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.  
THURSDAY...  
   
..HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
 
 
   
..OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT/PREFERENCES
 
 
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE DRIVEN BY RIDGING OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA  
WHICH SUPPORTS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER  
48. A ROBUST CENTRAL-EASTERN SYSTEM WILL EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST  
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY (BUT LINGER IN SOUTH FLORIDA) AS THE  
PATTERN WILL TURN MUCH QUIETER BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE  
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW REASONABLE CLUSTERING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND  
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFERED A GOOD  
STARTING POINT THAT KEPT IN LINE WITH CONTINUITY.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AND HAZARDS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING WIND-DRIVEN  
SNOW TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN GREAT LAKES AS IT EXITS THROUGH  
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. TO THE SOUTH, INFLUX OF GULF  
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
EMBEDDED CONVECTION FROM ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD AS THE COLD  
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD. MILD AIR DRAWN  
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY MUCH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES (5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE) THAT WILL FINALLY EXIT  
OUT OF THE WEST AND FOCUS ON THE CENTRAL STATES. BY SAT-MON, HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 WITH A DRY  
NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA, SUPPORTING SOME LAKE-ENHANCED SNOWS.  
 
FRACASSO  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARDS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 
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