827  
FXUS01 KWBC 112000  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
359 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2019  
 
VALID 00Z TUE MAR 12 2019 - 00Z THU MAR 14 2019  
 
...HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...  
 
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...  
 
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM  
THE COLORADO ROCKIES TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...  
 
AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL  
PACIFIC AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR RAIN  
AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE  
COLORADO ROCKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TO THE NORTHWEST, A SEPARATE  
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS  
TO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN  
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES. WITH TIME, THIS SYSTEM WILL MERGE  
WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S., WHICH WILL LEAD TO  
INCREASING SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES WHERE AS  
MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  
 
THE BIG STORY IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD WILL ONCE THE SYSTEM IN  
THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS  
SYSTEM, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY, WITH ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FAVORABLE  
FOR BOTH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER. BOTH WPC  
AND SPC HAVE HIGHLIGHTED PARTS OF THIS REGION WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK  
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, RESPECTIVELY. BY  
WEDNESDAY, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS LASTING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE  
PERIOD ON THURSDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS  
SYSTEM AS WELL LEADING TO SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME  
AREAS AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.  
 
TO THE SOUTH, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
WILL CONTINUE, EXPANDING NORTH AND EASTWARD WITH TIME ALONG THE  
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. ANOTHER DAY OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY  
FROM THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARM AIR SURGING  
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE MIDWEST OVER AN AREA WITH  
A DEEP SNOW PACK WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL AND ACCELERATED SNOW MELT  
RESULTING IN FLOODING CONCERNS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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