559  
FXUS02 KWBC 120307  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1107 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2019  
 
VALID 12Z FRI MAR 15 2019 - 12Z TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
..OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT/PREFERENCES
 
 
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL FAVOR BROAD TROUGHING  
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AFTER A COLD FRONT EXITS OFF  
THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. THAT FRONT WILL SETTLE  
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR  
THE SUNSHINE STATE AS WELL AS SOUTH TEXAS. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
WILL LIKELY STAY DRY UNTIL ABOUT NEXT TUESDAY WHEN A SYSTEM MAY  
ATTEMPT TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST. LATEST GFS/ECMWF OFFER GOOD  
CLUSTERING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE  
SWIFT NW FLOW OUT OF CANADA. A CONSENSUS POSITION WAS BEST GIVEN  
THE RUN-TO-RUN SHIFTS IN WEAK SHORTWAVE TIMING.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AND HAZARDS
 
 
AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON FRIDAY THE RAIN  
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA WHERE THE FRONT WILL  
SLOW DOWN ON SAT/SUN. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE  
LARGELY FROZEN GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW  
(MINIMAL MOISTURE FLUX THROUGH THE ICE). COOLER TEMPERATURES (5-15  
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE) WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WEST AND  
FOCUS ON THE CENTRAL STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MON/TUE. THE  
WEST COAST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE  
AVERAGE.  
 
FRACASSO  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARDS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 
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