108  
FXUS01 KWBC 122015  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
415 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2019  
 
VALID 00Z WED MAR 13 2019 - 00Z FRI MAR 15 2019  
 
...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO  
THE PLAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS...  
 
...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE ROCKIES AND  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH BLIZZARD  
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SOME AREAS...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING, AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE ALL POSSIBLE  
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW SYSTEM...  
 
...WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND COLDER  
THAN NORMAL IN THE WEST BEHIND IT...  
 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SPINNING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON  
WEDNESDAY, THEN TRACKING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON  
THURSDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A MYRIAD OF WEATHER HAZARDS  
ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
FIRSTLY, TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW, HEAVY SNOW IS  
LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE SAN  
JUAN MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO  
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTING 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH  
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 FEET. THE STRONG LOW (NEARING RECORD LOW  
PRESSURE VALUES) WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH  
CAUSES HIGH WINDS. THUS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE HEAVY SNOW AND VISIBILITY NEAR  
ZERO WILL CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS, AND POWER  
OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  
 
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN  
THREAT. ON TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO  
TEXAS, WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES, STRONG WINDS  
ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING  
EAST, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
ON WEDNESDAY, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE.  
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL IN THE  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
TUESDAY, WHILE ON WEDNESDAY, A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN  
PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  
ADDITIONALLY, THE WARM AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS  
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE UPPER/MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS AREA HAS AN EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK, SO  
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN COULD CAUSE SNOWMELT.  
 
THE CONUS WILL BE DIVIDED TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH MUCH ABOVE  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND BELOW  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL SPREAD AS  
FAR NORTH AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY, 15 TO 25 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE WEST, HIGHS OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE  
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL  
STAY WITHIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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