587  
FXUS02 KWBC 270701  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 AM EDT WED MAR 27 2019  
 
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 30 2019 - 12Z WED APR 03 2019  
   
..OVERVIEW AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AND HAZARDS
 
 
UPPER RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL REFOCUS INTO ALASKA TO  
FAVOR TROUGHING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE UPPER  
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. LEAD LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THROUGH  
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AS THE  
TRAILING COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE S-CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.,  
LINGERING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM MAY  
BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER INCLUDING SOME WEEKEND SNOW FROM THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MODERATE RAINFALL  
AND CONVECTION AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN  
STREAM PACIFIC SHORTWAVES MEANWHILE PROGRESS UNDERNEATH INTO AN  
UNSETTLED WEST, THEN EASTWARD OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN TIER. THIS  
MAY INVIGORATE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS NEXT WEEK. THIS  
WOULD LEAD TO INCREASED RAINS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND  
ESPECIALLY FLORIDA, LEADING INTO POSSIBLE WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTAL  
LOW DEVELOPMENT. UPSTREAM, A RENEWED SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE WEST  
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AND  
HEAVIER ELEVATION SNOWS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES.  
   
..GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT/PREFERENCES
 
 
THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEM TO OFFER  
REASONABLY SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTIONS, BUT LESS THAN  
STELLAR CONSISTENCY WITH STREAM INTERACTIONS AND TIMING/STRENGTH  
OF A MULTITUDE OF SMALLER SCALE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITH THE FLOW.  
PREFER A COMPOSITE BLEND TO MITIGATE THIS WITH BLEND WEIGHTING  
TRANSITIONING FROM IN FAVOR OF THESE DETERMINITSIC MODELS THIS  
WEEKEND TO THESE ENSEMBLE MEANS NEXT WEEK.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARDS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 
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