752  
FXUS02 KWBC 280614  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
213 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2019  
 
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 31 2019 - 12Z THU APR 04 2019  
   
..OVERVIEW AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/HAZARDS
 
 
A LEAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AS A  
TRAILING COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE EASTERN SEABOARD, LINGERING  
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A THREAT  
OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MODERATE RAINFALL/CONVECTION  
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES MEANWHILE PROGRESS OVER THE  
WEST/SOUTHWEST THEN EASTWARD OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN TIER  
UNDERNEATH AN AMPLFIED NORTHERN STREAM. THIS MAY INVIGORATE GULF  
OF MEXICO FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS ENHANCED  
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD ALONG EAST COAST AS  
PER LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS, ALBEIT WITH UNCERTAIN SUBSEQUENT  
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENTS THAT COULD KEEP AMPLE ACTIVITY JUST  
OFFSHORE. UPSTREAM, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES AMID  
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AND HEAVIER ELEVATION SNOWS FROM THE  
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WORKING TO THE  
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK.  
   
..GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT/PREFERENCES
 
 
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO OFFER REASONABLY SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN  
EVOLUTIONS, BUT LESS THAN STELLAR CONSISTENCY WITH STREAM  
INTERACTIONS AND TIMING/STRENGTH OF A MULTITUDE OF SMALLER-SCALE  
SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. PREFERRED A MODEL AND ENSEMBLE  
COMPOSITE BLEND TO MITIGATE THIS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE MORE  
COMPATABLE GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS DAYS 3-7.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARDS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 
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