904  
FXUS01 KWBC 040800  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT THU APR 04 2019  
 
VALID 12Z THU APR 04 2019 - 12Z SAT APR 06 2019  
 
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER BOTH POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY...  
 
...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE WEST THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WEEK...  
 
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, AND THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL. FARTHER NORTH, RAIN IS  
POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY, WITH  
SNOW OR MIX POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH IN PARTS OF THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE  
LIGHT, ANY AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION COULD EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOOD  
CONCERNS FOR THAT REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL MOVE INTO  
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT, AND INTO THE  
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. SNOW OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, WITH A LIGHT  
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.  
 
A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S.  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTS AT THE  
SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST  
COAST ON THURSDAY AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES BY  
FRIDAY. LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS  
EXPECTED, AND THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST IN THE  
SIERRA NEVADA AND THE BITTERROOT RANGE IN IDAHO, WITH 6 TO 10  
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THERE.  
 
AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY,  
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A FRONT LINGERS THERE. IN DRIER AIR TO  
THE WEST, AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF  
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA  
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY. ALSO REGARDING FIRE WEATHER, PARTS OF THE  
NORTHEAST COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD  
OF FIRES ON THURSDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM ON  
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. CALIFORNIA WILL BE  
A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH THE  
WEST, AND THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTING COLDER THAN AVERAGE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS  
BASICALLY THE ENTIRE CONUS BY SATURDAY MORNING, AFTER COOLER THAN  
AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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