102  
FXUS01 KWBC 061938  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
337 PM EDT SAT APR 06 2019  
 
VALID 00Z SUN APR 07 2019 - 00Z TUE APR 09 2019  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
THIS WEEKEND, WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...  
 
...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
 
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY...  
 
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ACT  
AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT  
RANGE PERIOD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION  
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED TERRAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND  
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA, WITH FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING A  
POSSIBILITY. WPC HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY AND FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN  
EFFECT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. LOWER ELEVATION RAINS AND MOUNTAIN  
SNOWS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON, OREGON,  
AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SPARKED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN  
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO  
THIS EVENING, DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY  
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, DAMAGING WINDS,  
LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. SPC HAS A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, AND THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE WPC HAS  
HIGHLIGHTED PARTS OF THIS REGION WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS WELL. BY SUNDAY, THE ENERGY SHOULD LIFT INTO  
THE MIDWEST AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT  
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, RAIN SHOULD SHIFT  
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST, WITH MAINLY LIGHT  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  
 
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE OUT OF THE  
SOUTHERN U.S. ON SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND ROUND  
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON  
SUNDAY. SPC AND WPC HAVE AGAIN HIGHLIGHTED THE SAME REGION WITHIN  
SLIGHT RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING, RESPECTIVELY.  
ON SUNDAY EVENING, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE  
WESTERN GULF COAST AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT THE HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES AND THE  
LOWER TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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