199  
FXUS01 KWBC 092008  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
407 PM EDT TUE APR 09 2019  
 
VALID 00Z WED APR 10 2019 - 00Z FRI APR 12 2019  
 
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS  
WITH A POTENT LATE-SEASON WINTER STORM...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH OF THE HEAVY SNOW...  
   
..EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND  
SURFACE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO HEAVY SNOW  
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND WASATCH ON TUESDAY NIGHT, AND UP  
TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW IS  
FORECAST TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY  
NIGHT AS WELL. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE  
LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TRACKING NORTH  
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW ALSO MOVES AND  
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SNOW TO THE  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOW, AND INTO  
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
AS HEAVY AND WET SNOW COMBINES WITH STRONG WINDS. A SWATH OF 1 TO  
2 FEET OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND  
INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, WITH LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY IN  
THE WARM AIR SOUTH OF A STRONG WARM/STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE LOW. CURRENTLY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED  
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING FOR THESE AREAS. FLOODING IS  
ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS, AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
COULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION OF  
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRANSITION  
ZONE BETWEEN SNOW AND RAIN.  
 
BEHIND THE LOW SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE, CONDITIONS WILL  
BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST AND  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, AS HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS AND EVEN HIGHER  
GUSTS COMBINE WITH VERY DRY HUMIDITIES. THROUGH TUESDAY, A  
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO  
AND PORTIONS OF COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS, BUT CONDITIONS ON  
WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE, LEADING TO AN EXTREME RISK  
IN THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT  
THESE AREAS. MORE BROADLY, HIGH WINDS ARE A THREAT FROM CALIFORNIA  
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ROCKIES AND PLAINS FOR  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A PIVOTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE  
BRINGING SNOW TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WHERE  
2 TO 4 ADDITIONAL INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS TUESDAY EVENING, AND THERE  
IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THERE.  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON  
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY THURSDAY AS  
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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