820  
FXUS01 KWBC 110719  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
319 AM EDT THU APR 11 2019  
 
VALID 12Z THU APR 11 2019 - 12Z SAT APR 13 2019  
 
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ONGOING IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH  
A POTENT LATE-SEASON WINTER STORM...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY...  
 
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND  
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...  
 
A STRONG STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO  
NEAR JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY. HEAVY, WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE WEST  
AND NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW, AND 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW  
IS FORECAST FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE  
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. HIGH WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY, CREATING  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DIFFICULT TO  
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED.  
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT ALONG THE RAIN/SNOW LINE; A QUARTER  
OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE IOWA/MINNESOTA  
BORDER AND INTO WISCONSIN. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF  
THE LOW SYSTEM, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A SLIGHT  
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN OHIO  
VALLEY IN THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY.  
MARGINAL RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING ARE IN PLACE  
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, AND  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE  
ASSOCIATED FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE  
WESTERN OHIO VALLEYS SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND INTO THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.  
 
BEHIND THE STORM AND AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE, CONDITIONS WILL BE  
FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST AND  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, AS HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS AND EVEN HIGHER  
GUSTS COMBINE WITH VERY DRY HUMIDITIES. AN CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE  
DANGER IS IN PLACE IN THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S FIRE WEATHER  
OUTLOOK FOR THE WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY.  
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS. MORE  
BROADLY, GUSTY WINDS ARE A THREAT FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE  
SOUTHWEST, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ROCKIES, PLAINS, AND MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR HIGH  
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE  
IN EFFECT.  
 
ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE  
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY WILL  
INDUCE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO  
BY SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION  
SNOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER  
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ON FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY, SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST. AS THE ENERGY BEGINS  
TO MOVE ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF  
OF MEXICO WILL STREAM NORTHWARD OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF  
COAST AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL  
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
 
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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