204  
FXUS01 KWBC 112100  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
500 PM EDT THU APR 11 2019  
 
VALID 00Z FRI APR 12 2019 - 00Z SUN APR 14 2019  
 
...HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST  
THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND  
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
 
A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO  
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY. HEAVY  
SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST,  
WITHIN THE SYSTEM'S NORTHWEST QUADRANT. 6 TO 8 INCHES OF  
ADDITIONAL SNOW IS LIKELY FOR A SWATH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND  
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE  
DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT  
AROUND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM.  
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED.  
FREEZING RAIN REMAINS A THREAT FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE  
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A TENTH OF  
AN INCH BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF  
ILLINOIS.  
 
THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE  
COUNTRY WILL STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. ON FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY AS OVERRUNNING GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEAD TO  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND LATER INTO  
THE MID-ATLANTIC. AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN  
EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS ON  
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING AS A DRY LINE SETS UP IN WESTERN TEXAS BEHIND THE  
EXITING STORM SYSTEM.  
 
ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE  
SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE  
ENERGY WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN  
TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN  
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY AND INTO  
SATURDAY, SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF  
THE GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST. THERE'S A  
CHANCE FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IN THE  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ON SUNDAY THE SAME UPPER LEVEL  
ENERGY WILL CAUSE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
KEBEDE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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