225  
FXUS01 KWBC 130728  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
328 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2019  
 
VALID 12Z SAT APR 13 2019 - 12Z MON APR 15 2019  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED TODAY FOR  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY...  
 
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST  
TO THE APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY...  
 
...WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY  
AFTER VERY COLD SATURDAY...  
 
A POTENT SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING  
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
MORNING ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS AN  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE. THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS  
WEATHER WILL PICKUP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS  
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE MATERIALIZE. THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE  
STORMS, INCLUDING TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE  
WINDS, FROM PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA  
AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THESE STORMS WILL  
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING, THE GREATEST  
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST A BIT FARTHER NORTH FROM THE  
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND THE MEMPHIS  
METROPOLITAN AREA. IT IS HERE THAT A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN  
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS INTENSITY FOR SUNDAY BUT  
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH  
FLOODING INTO THE TENNESSEE, UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS.  
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE  
CENTER (FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO  
NEW ENGLAND) AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND SEVERE STORMS WILL  
REMAIN POSSIBLE.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF  
THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD, BUT THE  
LARGEST DEPARTURES, IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WILL BE  
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 30S AND  
LOW 40S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS  
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AT TIMES. A CHANGE IN WIND  
DIRECTION BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY WILL ALLOW A WARM-UP HOWEVER WITH  
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S AND 80S FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS FOR MONDAY, ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND STARTING WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS  
WASHINGTON AND OREGON LATER TODAY. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW  
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INLAND BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE  
ACCUMULATIONS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE DAY  
ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. YET  
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT LIKELY BRINGING A RENEWED ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW  
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TO OREGON AND NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA.  
 
OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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