934  
FXUS02 KWBC 131600  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1200 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2019  
 
VALID 12Z TUE APR 16 2019 - 12Z SAT APR 20 2019  
 
...YET ANOTHER MAJOR SPRING STORM MID-LATE NEXT WEEK WILL PACK AN  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL TO  
EASTERN U.S...  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WEST EARLY WEEK  
AND DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND OVER THE MIDWEST MID-LATER WEEK AS  
RIDGING COMES BACK TO BOTH COASTS TEMPORARILY IN AN AMPLIFYING  
PATTERN. THIS SUPPORTS A ROBUST STORM TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES THAT HOLDS A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN,  
STRONG WINDS/SEVERE WEATHER AND SOME UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES  
SNOWS.  
 
   
..GUIDANCE PREFERENCES AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE MID-SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM  
VARIANCE FROM RUN TO RUN, BUT OVERALL OFFERS REASONABLY SIMILAR  
LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND AMPLIFICATION NEXT WEEK. A  
FAVORED DAY 3-7 COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MIXED WITH  
SOME GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE HERALDS A DYNAMIC ENERGY  
TRACK THROUGH THE UNSETTLED WEST THAT LEADS TO YET ANOTHER  
SIGNIFICANT STORM GENESIS AND WEATHER THREAT FOR ESPECIALLY THE  
CENTRAL AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL  
AGAIN INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD THURSDAY/FRIDAY FROM THE  
MISSISSIPPI/MISSOURI VALLEYS THROUGH THE EAST WITH FRONTAL  
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS AND  
MIDWEST. MULTI-INCH RAINFALL TOTALS/FLOODING ARE PROBABLE  
(ENHANCED IN EMBEDDED CONVECTION) IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE WARM  
SECTOR AND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WITH ADDITIONAL  
NORTHERN STREAM SUPPORT. SPC HAS ISSUED A DAY 4-6 SEVERE WEATHER  
RISK. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE LOW MAY ONLY BE  
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARDS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 
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