798  
FXUS01 KWBC 161949  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
349 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2019  
 
VALID 00Z WED APR 17 2019 - 00Z FRI APR 19 2019  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING TOWARDS THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON THURSDAY...  
 
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48  
TONIGHT AS THE NATION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. A  
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE WILL  
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK OFF TOWARD THE EAST TONIGHT. THUS, GUSTY  
WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN.  
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER ACROSS FAR  
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE OTHER IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN  
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW  
THROUGHOUT THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
ENERGY WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND  
STRENGTHEN, WHILE A NORTHERN PORTION MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT  
OVERNIGHT FROM NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER  
MIDWEST TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING LOW  
PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING TOWARD WISCONSIN.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH, A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS  
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, AND DOWN INTO  
TEXAS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING AN  
ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOR THESE AREAS, WITH  
A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS.  
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY,  
WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN PLACE FROM EASTERN TEXAS  
INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS. SOME OF THESE SAME  
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK AND COULD BE  
MORE SENSITIVE TO FLOODING FROM ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FROM THE  
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM.  
 
AS THE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST, THE  
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE  
STORMS ON ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, WITH A SLIGHT  
RISK EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SLIGHT RISK  
FOR FLASH FLOODING ALSO EXISTS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES  
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY, DUE TO HEAVY RAIN  
AND FLOOD-PRONE SOILS.  
 
SNELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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