765  
FXUS02 KWBC 170559  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
158 AM EDT WED APR 17 2019  
 
VALID 12Z SAT APR 20 2019 - 12Z WED APR 24 2019  
   
..OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES
 
 
UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TOWARD MUCH MORE ZONAL FLOW NEXT  
WEEK AFTER A VIGOROUS SYSTEM EXITS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS  
WEEKEND. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW DECREASING AGREEMENT ON THE  
FLOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SHORT WAVELENGTHS. AS SUCH,  
TRENDED FROM A MULTI-DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND TO START THE  
FORECAST (SAT/SUN) TO A 50/50 DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF THE  
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK. RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL RULE  
THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK FOCUSED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD AND ALSO IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH  
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO WA/OR AROUND TUESDAY.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
WRAPPED-UP SYSTEM IN THE EAST WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT WITH A FOCUS  
FOR MODEST RAIN INTO PRIMARILY MAINE ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING  
INTO CANADA. THIS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT  
TAKES THE UPPER TROUGH TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE AREA. WESTERN FRONT  
WILL SPUR SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE PLAINS SUN/MON AND SLOWLY PUSH  
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD, GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AMOUNTS AS GULF  
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL  
GENERALLY TREND MILDER THAN AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 GIVEN  
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK.  
 
FRACASSO  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARDS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 
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