430  
FXUS01 KWBC 170754  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
353 AM EDT WED APR 17 2019  
 
VALID 12Z WED APR 17 2019 - 12Z FRI APR 19 2019  
 
...STRONG STORM TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN U.S. WITH SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING...  
 
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL SEE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY  
AS A TWO-PART UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT  
PLAINS. A NORTHERN PORTION WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY  
MORNING. A SURFACE LOW AND ITS CORRESPONDING COLD/WARM FRONTS WILL  
TRACK AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO IOWA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH  
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTING NORTHWARD  
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE  
RATHER WARM BY MID-APRIL STANDARDS FOR IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND THE  
REST OF THE MIDWEST (SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT) WITH HIGHS WELL INTO  
THE 70S TODAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS A SLIGHT RISK  
FOR SEVERE STORMS SURROUNDING THE TRI-STATE REGION OF  
IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS WITH CONCERNS OVER TORNADOES AND HAIL.  
 
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO ERUPT NEAR THE COLD  
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN IOWA TO THE  
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS HERE, FROM THE  
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WHERE AN  
ENHANCED RISK IS IN PLACE BY SPC. IN FACT, THE ENHANCED RISK  
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS  
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX  
TOWARD THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA. OVER THE PAST WEEK, SOME OF  
THESE SAME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE SEEM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE  
RAINFALL AND MAY AT GREATER RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM ADDITIONAL  
HEAVY RAIN.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER BUT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER BEHIND THE  
STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BORDER WITH CANADA TO THE  
RIO GRANDE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S TO 60S  
FOR MANY. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL SHIFT  
EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER TO  
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH A GREATER SEVERE THREAT (ENHANCED  
RISK BY SPC) IN PLACE FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA TO WESTERN ALABAMA.  
LATE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST FOR THURSDAY  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN OHIO AND  
WESTERN NEW YORK.  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY  
MORNING AS THE CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER  
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.  
 
OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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