218  
FXUS01 KWBC 171949  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
349 PM EDT WED APR 17 2019  
 
VALID 00Z THU APR 18 2019 - 00Z SAT APR 20 2019  
 
...STRONG STORM TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN U.S. WITH SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS  
TO THE EASTERN U.S. BY FRIDAY...  
 
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL SEE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS A TWO-PART UPPER LEVEL STORM  
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A NORTHERN PORTION WILL TRACK  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW AND ITS  
CORRESPONDING COLD/WARM FRONTS WILL TRACK AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE  
INTO IOWA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE TRANSPORTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
SEVERE STORMS SURROUNDING THE TRI-STATE REGION OF  
IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS WITH CONCERNS OVER TORNADOES AND HAIL.  
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.  
 
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING NEAR THE COLD FRONT  
STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN IOWA TO THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. IT IS HERE, FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS  
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WHERE AN ENHANCED RISK IS IN  
PLACE BY SPC. ANOTHER ENHANCED RISK AREA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM  
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX TOWARD THE MEMPHIS  
METROPOLITAN AREA. OVER THE PAST WEEK, SOME OF THESE SAME  
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE SEEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL  
AND MAY BE AT A GREATER RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM ADDITIONAL  
HEAVY RAIN.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER BEHIND THE  
STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BORDER WITH CANADA TO THE  
RIO GRANDE. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE 50S TO 60S  
FOR MANY. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL SHIFT  
EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER TO  
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH A GREATER SEVERE THREAT (ENHANCED  
RISK BY SPC) IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO WESTERN ALABAMA  
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LATE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO  
SHIFT EAST FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AS FAR  
NORTH AS NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.  
 
BY FRIDAY THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AGAIN SHIFTS  
EAST, THIS TIME INTO THE EASTERN U.S. SPC HAS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN  
VIRGINIA. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BECOME A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS  
INCREASE MOISTURE AND CAUSE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ROLL  
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE, A SEPARATE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE  
NORTHWEST AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM WASHINGTON AND OREGON  
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
SNELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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