039  
FXUS02 KWBC 260658  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
257 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2019  
 
VALID 12Z MON APR 29 2019 - 12Z FRI MAY 03 2019  
   
..ASSESSMENT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND PREDICTABILITY
 
 
LATEST GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SEEM GENERALLY  
COMPATABLE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AT MID-LARGER SCALES, BOLSTERING  
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, SMALLER SCALE INTERACTIONS  
ARE LEADING TO LESS CERTAIN FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS AND TRACK  
DEPICTIONS. THE WPC MEDIM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY  
DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE GUIDANCE BLEND AND THE NATIONAL BLEND OF  
MODELS, BUT TILTED WEIGHTING IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES  
IN CONSIDERATION OF FAVORABLE TRENDS FROM RECENT GFS/GEFS RUNS.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES/HEIGHT FALLS IN BOTH NORTHERN AND  
SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL GENERATE SOME ENHANCED RAINS AND MOUNTAIN  
SNOWS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN  
ROCKIES. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM AND A MAIN WEATHER  
FOCUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOISTURE INFLOW/POOLING  
INTO A PERSISTENT/SLOW MOVING/WAVY FRONT WILL FOCUS MULTIPLE  
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR  
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE  
MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY STATES. ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE THE  
PRECIPITATION, SUFFICIENT COLD AIR MAY BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT  
SNOWS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OVER PARTS OF  
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH LOW GENESIS AND APPROACH.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARDS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 
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