064  
FXUS02 KWBC 011900  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
158 PM EST TUE FEB 01 2022  
 
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 04 2022 - 12Z TUE FEB 08 2022  
 
...LINGERING SNOW/ICE THREAT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST  
FRIDAY...  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
A POSITIVELY TILTED AND REINFORCED MEAN TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD HOLD  
STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD  
(FRIDAY-TUESDAY), AS STRONG UPPER RIDING BUILDS OVER BOTH THE  
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC (AND PERIODICALLY  
EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE WEST). ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE MOVING  
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL DRIVE A POTENT COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST  
COAST, WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY COMING TO AN  
END ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. INTO THIS WEEKEND,  
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER DETAILS OF ADDITIONAL  
SHORTWAVES DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE WEST AS  
WELL AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WHICH SHOULD  
SUPPORT A TRAIN OF NORTHERN TIER WAVES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER  
TROUGHING INTO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY INDUCE WINTRY COASTAL  
WAVES, WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY IN A  
SERIES OF LOWS.  
 
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PROVIDE A REASONABLY SIMILAR LARGER SCALE  
PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES, BUT PRESENT  
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN VARIANCE WITH SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED UPPER  
IMPULSES AND SURFACE WAVE REFLECTIONS AND LOCAL QPF FOCUS. PREFER  
A COMPOSITE OF THE OTHERWISE DECENTLY CLUSTERED SOLUTIONS OF THE  
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS FOR DAYS 3/4 (FRI/SAT) BEFORE  
TRANSITIONING TO THE STILL COMPATIBLE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS BY  
DAYS 6/7 TO MINIMIZE THE LESS PREDICTABLE FORECAST COMPONENTS.  
THIS PROVIDES A GOOD FORECAST BASIS ALONG WITH THE 13 UTC NATIONAL  
BLEND OF MODELS AND WPC CONTINUITY.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
TROUGHING INTO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND A LEADING WAVY COLD FRONT  
THROUGH THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LINGERING  
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE STILL  
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT  
FRIDAY WITH PERIODIC ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL FRONTAL WAVES/UPPER IMPULSES.  
 
ELSEWHERE, NORTHERN TIER SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE SECONDARY SHOTS OF  
COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.,BUT ONLY LIGHT, SCATTERED SNOW OVER  
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW  
SHOULD ACCOMPANY A COUPLE SYSTEMS BRUSHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. SIGNIFICANT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES WITH  
SEPARATE STREAMS OF ENERGY ALOFT LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE  
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM  
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AMBIENT COLD AIR OFFERS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SWATHS OF WINTRY WEATHER ON THE NORTHERN  
PERIPHERY OF THESE UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION AREAS, WITH BEST BET  
SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.  
 
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S.  
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPS LATER THIS WEEK INTO  
THE WEEKEND. ANOMALIES MAY BE MOST PROFOUND FOR PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH VALUES 15-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL POSSIBLE.  
UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS  
MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THIS REGION.  
 
SCHICHTEL/ASHERMAN  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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