302  
FXUS02 KWBC 022026  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
326 PM EST WED FEB 02 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 05 2022 - 12Z WED FEB 09 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT SATURDAY WITH BROAD TROUGHING  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BUILDING EAST  
PACIFIC RIDGE AND A RETREATING RIDGE INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL  
ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, MULTIPLE  
NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVES SHOULD BE PRESENT -- ONE EXITING THE  
NORTHEAST, ANOTHER WEAKENING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, AND A THIRD  
DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LAST SHORTWAVE SHOULD  
AMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH  
STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS  
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND INITIATE MODEST CYCLOGENESIS  
OFF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS  
THE WEST BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER BY THE MIDWEEK.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH  
AGREEMENT FOR A GENERAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND FOR THE DAY 3-4  
(SATURDAY-SUNDAY) TIME PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, GROWING SHORTWAVE  
TIMING AND PHASING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN  
STREAMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN PLAINS PROMPTED A  
MEAN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST, WHICH MAINTAINED DECENT  
CONTINUITY WITH THE OVERNIGHT MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
MUCH OF THE CONUS SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST IN TERMS OF ANY NOTABLE WEATHER THREATS.  
PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.  
HOWEVER, CONTINUED GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN  
THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. ENOUGH  
COLD AIR HOWEVER DOES OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SWATHS OF  
WINTRY WEATHER ON THE INLAND NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF ANY KIND OF  
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE EAST COAST, WITH THE BEST  
POTENTIAL FOR ANY KIND OF LIGHT ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY OVER THE  
CAROLINAS OR SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, NORTHERN TIER  
SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT AND SCATTERED SNOW FROM THE  
UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WHILE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW  
SHOULD ACCOMPANY A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS BRUSHING THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AS MUCH AS 10  
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS, WITH LESS EXTREME, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL,  
VALUES EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS  
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD CHALLENGE A FEW LONGSTANDING  
RECORDS ON SATURDAY. AFTER SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION  
SHOULD MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE  
COLD IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS  
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD,  
WITH THE WARMEST ANOMALIES (+20-25F) DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT  
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN. MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN U.S.  
SHOULD TREND WARMER AS WELL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERN PACIFIC  
RIDGING MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE.  
 
ASHERMAN/SANTORELLI  
 
HAZARDS:  
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE  
MIDWEST, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR  
NORTHEAST, SAT-SUN, FEB 5-FEB 6.  
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SAT-MON, FEB 5-FEB 7.  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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