148  
FXUS02 KWBC 030609  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
109 AM EST THU FEB 03 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 06 2022 - 12Z THU FEB 10 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH BROAD TROUGHING  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BUILDING EAST  
PACIFIC RIDGE AND A RETREATING RIDGE INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL  
ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW, SEVERAL NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN  
STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ACT TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH, ALLOWING IT TO  
PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WELL INTO NEXT  
WEEK AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE  
WEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE U.S. MOSTLY DRY  
AND VERY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER  
RELATED IMPACTS EXPECTED.  
 
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ENOUGH AGREEMENT DURING THE  
DAY 3-5 (SUNDAY-TUESDAY) TIME PERIOD FOR A GENERAL DETERMINISTIC  
MODEL BLEND. DURING THIS TIME, AN ELONGATED MEAN TROUGH FROM THE  
UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL SPLIT INTO A NORTHERN STREAM  
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE  
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A THIRD SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOP  
OF THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
AFTER THIS, SOME SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN DETAILS AND  
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS BEGINS TO CREEP IN, INCLUDING THE  
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MODEST  
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE AT  
THIS TIME SURROUNDS STRENGTH OF SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE  
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE, POSSIBLY SPINNING UP A CUT-OFF CLOSED LOW  
OVER THE SOUTHWEST NEXT THURSDAY/DAY 7. THIS IS SOMETHING NEW  
PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE SHOWING, BUT A LOOK AT THE  
ENSEMBLE MEMBER PLOTS SHOWS NOTABLE SUPPORT FOR THIS. BOTH  
YESTERDAYS 18Z RUN AND TODAYS 00Z RUN OF THE GFS ARE MUCH WEAKER  
(ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED). REGARDLESS,  
GIVEN THE TIME FRAME AND STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, FELT IT  
PRUDENT TO TREND TOWARDS 50 PERCENT INCLUSION OF THE ENSEMBLE  
MEANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD JUST TO HELP SMOOTH OUT SOME OF  
THESE DIFFERENCES. THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ALSO ALLOWED  
FOR VERY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS WPC FORECAST.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
MUCH OF THE CONUS SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST IN TERMS OF ANY NOTABLE WEATHER THREATS.  
PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE PIECES OF WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND OFFSHORE  
FRONTAL WAVES, WITH SOME RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO  
ABLE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF  
COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, NORTHERN TIER SYSTEMS  
MAY BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT AND SCATTERED SNOW FROM THE UPPER  
MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WHILE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW  
SHOULD ACCOMPANY A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS BRUSHING THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL, WILL MODERATE BUT CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM  
PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST.  
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD CHALLENGE A FEW  
LONGSTANDING RECORDS THIS WEEKEND. ON THE CONTRARY, MUCH OF THE  
WEST INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD TREND WARMER DURING  
THE MEDIUM RANGE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE  
BUILDING WELL INLAND. THE WARMEST ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS  
NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WILL BE WELCOME RELIEF AFTER A VERY  
COLD SHORT RANGE PERIOD.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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