577  
FXUS02 KWBC 032034  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
333 PM EST THU FEB 03 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 06 2022 - 12Z THU FEB 10 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH BROAD TROUGHING  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BUILDING EAST  
PACIFIC RIDGE AND A RETREATING RIDGE INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL  
ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW, SEVERAL NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN  
STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ACT TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH, ALLOWING IT TO  
PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WELL INTO NEXT  
WEEK AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.  
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE U.S. MOSTLY DRY AND  
VERY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED  
IMPACTS EXPECTED.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ENOUGH AGREEMENT DURING THE  
DAY 3-5 (SUNDAY-TUESDAY) TIME PERIOD FOR A GENERAL DETERMINISTIC  
MODEL BLEND. DURING THIS TIME, AN ELONGATED MEAN TROUGH FROM THE  
UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL SPLIT INTO A NORTHERN STREAM  
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE  
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A THIRD SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOP  
OF THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
AFTER THIS, SOME SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN DETAILS AND  
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS BEGINS TO CREEP IN, INCLUDING THE  
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MODEST  
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE AT  
THIS TIME INVOLVES THE EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT SLIDES  
DOWN THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,  
SO WENT WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR DAYS 6-7 (WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY).  
12Z GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO OVERNIGHT RUNS, ALTHOUGH DO  
NOTE THE 12Z GFS CAME IN SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSING SOUTHERN  
STREAM SHORTWAVES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IN GENERAL HOWEVER,  
THE FORECAST RETAINS GOOD OVERALL CONTINUITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT  
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
MUCH OF THE CONUS SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST IN TERMS OF ANY NOTABLE WEATHER THREATS.  
PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS  
EASTWARD PROPAGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTIVITY SPINS UP A FEW  
MODEST OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVES, WITH SOME RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE  
GULF OF MEXICO ABLE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, NORTHERN  
TIER SYSTEMS MAY BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT AND SCATTERED SNOW FROM  
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WHILE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN/MOUNTAIN  
SNOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS BRUSHING THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL, WILL MODERATE BUT CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM  
PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST.  
LOWS IN THE TEENS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD  
CHALLENGE A RECORD OR TWO ON SUNDAY. ON THE CONTRARY, MUCH OF THE  
WEST INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD TREND WARMER DURING  
THE MEDIUM RANGE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE  
BUILDING WELL INLAND. THE WARMEST ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS  
NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WILL BE WELCOME RELIEF AFTER A VERY  
COLD SHORT RANGE PERIOD.  
 
ASHERMAN/SANTORELLI  
 
HAZARDS:  
- FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY.  
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS WELL AS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE  
OHIO VALLEY, SUN-MON, FEB 6-FEB 7.  
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER TO  
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, SUN, FEB 6.  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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