134  
FXUS02 KWBC 040654  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
153 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2022  
 
VALID 12Z MON FEB 7 2022 - 12Z FRI FEB 11 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
THE OVERALL THEME FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A WEST COAST  
RIDGE AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
NATION, WITH MULTIPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS  
REINFORCING THE TROUGH FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND A SURFACE LOW  
DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ANOMALOUS  
CLOSED UPPER HIGH EVOLVES JUST OFF THE WEST COAST FOR THE SECOND  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS PART OF A +PNA PATTERN, AND THIS FAVORS A  
BROAD TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR  
MOST LOCATIONS.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE  
GENERALLY IN ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
WEEK, WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL  
SHORTWAVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z GFS TRENDED MORE  
AMPLIFIED WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST ALONG WITH A  
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS NOT WELL SUPPORTED BY THE  
OTHER GUIDANCE, WHEREAS THE 18Z GFS WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE  
LATEST ECMWF AND CMC. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE LATEST GFS IS  
QUITE STRONG WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND  
DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AS THE 18Z GFS DOES. THE  
ECMWF IS ALSO A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE  
WESTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COMPARED TO THE  
CMC/GFS, BUT OTHERWISE IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S.  
 
THE WPC FRONTS/PRESSURES FORECAST WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A  
MULTI-DETERMINISTIC (INCLUDING 18Z GFS) THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,  
BEFORE INCORPORATING MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE SECOND  
HALF OF THE WEEK.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST  
EARLY IN THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COLD  
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE  
CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION.  
THIS MAY ALSO CLIP EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL  
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, SO THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUED TO BE  
MONITORED FOR FUTURE TRENDS, AND THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAS TRENDED  
SLIGHTLY UPWARD WITH QPF COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS  
THE NATION, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS,  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR WESTERN  
WASHINGTON EARLY IN THE WEEK, AND PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE  
WEEK, ALBEIT ON A MODERATING TREND COMPARED TO THE WELL BELOW  
AVERAGE READINGS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. READINGS ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ARE LIKELY TO BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE  
AVERAGE, AND NEAR AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE EAST COAST REGION  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE  
EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK FOR THE WEST COAST REGION OWING TO  
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  
 
HAMRICK  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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