894  
FXUS02 KWBC 042011  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
310 PM EST FRI FEB 04 2022  
 
VALID 12Z MON FEB 07 2022 - 12Z FRI FEB 11 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
THE OVERALL THEME FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A WEST COAST  
RIDGE AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
NATION, WITH MULTIPLE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS  
REINFORCING THE TROUGH FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND A SURFACE LOW  
DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ANOMALOUS  
CLOSED UPPER HIGH EVOLVES JUST OFF THE WEST COAST FOR THE SECOND  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS PART OF A +PNA PATTERN, AND THIS FAVORS A  
BROAD TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR  
MOST LOCATIONS.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE  
GENERALLY IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER-PATTERN THROUGH  
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME  
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EAST  
OF THE ROCKIES. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES INVOLVE THE EVOLUTION OF  
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE MONDAY ONWARD. THE 0Z ECMWF PRESENTS A  
SLOWER, MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE TRACK TO THE INITIAL SOUTHEAST  
SURFACE WAVE, WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO PUSH THE LOW OUT TO SEA  
(WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM NOTED ON THE 12Z RUN). MEANWHILE,  
THE 12Z CMC AND UKMET HAVE A SIMILAR LOW TRACK TO THE ECMWF, BUT  
ARE MORE BULLISH WITH THE SYSTEM STRENGTH. TO RESOLVE THIS  
UNCERTAINTY, USED A DETERMINISTIC BLEND TO OBTAIN A MIDDLE GROUND  
SOLUTION FOR THE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL CAMPS FOR DAYS 3-5.  
BEYOND TUESDAY, GROWING SPREAD WITH THE DEPTH AND SUBSEQUENT  
EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM GREAT LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEMS SUPPORTED AN  
ENSEMBLE BLEND SLIGHTLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE 0Z ECMWF AND 6Z GEFS  
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS 6-7. IN GENERAL, THIS BLENDING APPROACH  
YIELDED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE OVERNIGHT WPC FORECAST.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST  
EARLY IN THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COLD  
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH  
EARLY TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN  
EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION. THIS THREAT MAY ALSO AFFECT EASTERN  
NEW ENGLAND DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, SO  
THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE TRENDS.  
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR  
WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY IN THE WEEK, AND PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT  
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK,  
ALBEIT ON A MODERATING TREND COMPARED TO THE WELL BELOW AVERAGE  
READINGS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE,  
AND NEAR AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE EAST COAST REGION THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED  
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK FOR THE WEST COAST REGION OWING TO THE LARGE  
UPPER RIDGE ENCROACHING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  
 
ASHERMAN/HAMRICK  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
HAZARDS:  
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, MON, FEB 7.  
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT  
LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY, TUE, FEB 8.  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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