166  
FXUS02 KWBC 050649  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
148 AM EST SAT FEB 5 2022  
 
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 8 2022 - 12Z SAT FEB 12 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
THE OVERALL THEME FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A WEST COAST  
RIDGE AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
NATION. THERE WILL BE A FEW NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES/CLIPPER  
SYSTEMS REINFORCING THE TROUGH FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND A  
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
AN ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER HIGH EVOLVES JUST OFF THE WEST COAST FOR  
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS PART OF A +PNA PATTERN, AND THIS  
FAVORS A BROAD TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH MAINLY DRY  
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE  
GENERALLY IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER-PATTERN THROUGH  
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME  
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EAST  
OF THE ROCKIES. BY NEXT WEEKEND, MORE NOTEWORTHY TIMING  
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM  
WESTERN CANADA, WITH THE CMC/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FASTER THAN THE GFS,  
WHILE THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WEST  
COAST UPPER RIDGE. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH  
SHORTWAVE TIMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. FOR  
FRIDAY/SATURDAY, A MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS USED AS A  
STARTING POINT IN THE FORECAST PROCESS, WHEREAS A  
MULTI-DETERMINISTIC BLEND WORKED WELL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY  
IN THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COLD RAIN  
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW FOR  
INLAND LOCATIONS, DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE  
LOW, SO THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE  
TRENDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY AREAS  
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE  
CLIPPER SYSTEMS, AND SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA  
WITH POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND THE EAST COAST  
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND THIS IS A MODERATING TREND  
COMPARED TO THE WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND  
FOR MANY AREAS. READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS  
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, AND THIS CAN  
ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK FOR THE WEST COAST REGION  
OWING TO THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE ENCROACHING FROM THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC.  
 
HAMRICK  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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