385  
FXUS02 KWBC 051901  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
200 PM EST SAT FEB 05 2022  
 
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 08 2022 - 12Z SAT FEB 12 2022  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN GENERALLY IN  
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER SCALE UPPER-PATTERN THROUGH  
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME  
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. A  
COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ALONG WITH THE  
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND WPC CONTINUITY SEEMS TO OFFER A  
REASONABLE FORECAST BASIS FOR DAYS 3-5 (TUE-THU). REPLACED THE  
MODELS WITH THE MORE COMPATIBLE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THE  
WPC COMPOSITE TO BETTER MAINTAIN WPC CONTINUITY LATER WEEK INTO  
NEXT WEEKEND AMID STEADILY GROWING FORECAST SPREAD.  
   
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A WEST COAST RIDGE  
WITH AN ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A  
BROADLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS PART OF A POSITIVE  
PNA PATTERN. A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES/CLIPPER  
SYSTEMS REINFORCING THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT WEEK OFFER LIMITED  
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN MODERATED  
FLOW. THE BEST BET FOR ENHANCED WINTRY WEATHER MAY HINGE ON THE  
COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT OF LEAD COASTAL LOWS DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST  
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY DRY  
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS NEXT WEEK.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page