833  
FXUS02 KWBC 060658  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
157 AM EST SUN FEB 6 2022  
 
VALID 12Z WED FEB 9 2022 - 12Z SUN FEB 13 2022  
   
..WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THIS  
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE WEST  
COAST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION, WITH  
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/FRONTS TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND  
THEN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME HINT OF A  
POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS A MORE  
ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TRIES TO BREAK DOWN  
THE WESTERN RIDGE SOME.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE  
GENERALLY IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE  
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH SOME MINOR TIMING  
DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EAST OF THE  
ROCKIES AND A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH THE CMC ACROSS  
THE SOUTHWEST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM  
SHORTWAVE. BY NEXT WEEKEND, MORE NOTEWORTHY TIMING/AMPLITUDE  
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM  
WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., AND ALSO WITH  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT  
SUNDAY.  
 
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND, A MAJORITY OF  
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT IN THE FORECAST  
PROCESS WITH A LITTLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, WHEREAS A  
MULTI-DETERMINISTIC BLEND WORKED WELL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE  
WEEK.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. WILL ENJOY DRY WEATHER AND  
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER RELATED DISRUPTIONS OVERALL. THERE  
WILL LIKELY BE SOME ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE UPPER  
MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER  
TYPE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THEY WILL PROBABLY NOT  
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OR ATLANTIC,  
THUS KEEPING QPF MODEST. SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY  
A FEW INCHES OR LESS.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE HIGH PLAINS, AND WITHIN 5 DEGREES  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. OVERALL,  
DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE. READINGS ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10-20  
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. COLDER WEATHER  
LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION  
BY NEXT SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RUNNING UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
HAMRICK  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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