053  
FXUS02 KWBC 061511  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1010 AM EST SUN FEB 06 2022  
 
VALID 12Z WED FEB 09 2022 - 12Z SUN FEB 13 2022  
   
..WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN  
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SYNOPTIC SCALE  
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A BROAD TROUGH WITH  
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/FRONTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
NATION. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL OF A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT  
SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE NORTHEAST  
PACIFIC TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST COAST RIDGE.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN GENERALLY IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT  
WITH THE LARGER SCALE UPPER-PATTERN THIS WEEK, ALBEIT WITH  
NUMEROUS TIMING AND FOCUS DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH MANY OF THE  
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE LATEST  
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ALONG WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS  
SEEMS TO OFFER A REASONABLE FORECAST BASIS FOR DAYS 3-5  
(WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY), WITH REMAINING SMALLER SCALE DETAIL CONSISTENT  
WITH SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY. THIS MAINTAINS GOOD WPC PRODUCT  
CONTINUITY. TRANSITIONED TO A BLEND OF THE MORE COMPATIBLE  
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS NEXT WEEKEND AMID GROWING FORECAST  
SPREAD, BUT MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE  
NORTHWEST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE COMPOSITE INDICATED AS LONGER  
RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO BREAK DOWN AMPLIFIED RIDGES TOO QUICKLY.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. WILL ENJOY DRY WEATHER AND  
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGER SCALE WEATHER RELATED DISRUPTIONS  
OVERALL THIS WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND  
AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION, BUT  
THEY WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM  
THE GULF OR ATLANTIC, THUS KEEPING QPF MODEST. SNOW SHOWERS ARE  
ALSO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES MIDWEEK. THERE IS  
HOWEVER A GROWING GUIDANCE SIGNAL THAT SUPPORTS AN EMERGING AREA  
OF RAIN TO SPREAD ONWARD FROM THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER  
NEXT WEEKEND AS AMPLIFIED PASSING SYSTEM ENERGIES POOL DEEPER  
MOISTURE INTO A TRAILING/WAVY FRONT.  
 
HAMRICK/SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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