324  
FXUS02 KWBC 071849  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
149 PM EST MON FEB 07 2022  
 
VALID 12Z THU FEB 10 2022 - 12Z MON FEB 14 2022  
 
 
1900 UTC UPDATE...  
 
THE LATEST 00Z/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIMILAR  
EVOLUTION AND THINKING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND SO NO MAJOR  
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FROM THE OVERNIGHT WPC FORECAST PACKAGE. THE  
06Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT  
FROM OTHER PIECES OF GUIDANCE WITH A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW OVER THE  
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND SO IT WAS EXCLUDED FROM THE WPC  
BLEND AFTER DAY 4. HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS DID COME IN WITHOUT THAT  
FEATURE SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO NOTE. AFTER DAY 5, THE TIMING OF  
SYSTEMS WITHIN THE MEAN EAST TROUGH AS WELL AS AMPLITUDE AND  
TIMING OF AN INCOMING PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE ON DAY 7  
CONTINUE TO PRESENT FORECAST ISSUES. THEREFORE, A BLEND AWAY FROM  
THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WITH MORE EMPHASIS TOWARDS THE  
ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEMED A SAFE STARTING POINT FOR THE UPDATED  
FORECAST AND ALSO PROVIDED EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS  
WPC PROGS. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL  
INFORMATION AND DETAILS REGARDING MODEL GUIDANCE AND SENSIBLE  
WEATHER IMPACTS.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 0700 UTC...  
   
..WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN  
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SYNOPTIC SCALE  
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY, AND A BROAD  
TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/FRONTS OVER THE EASTERN  
HALF OF THE NATION. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL OF A POTENTIAL PATTERN  
CHANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE  
NORTHEAST PACIFIC TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST COAST RIDGE.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN GENERALLY IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT  
WITH THE LARGER SCALE UPPER-PATTERN THIS WEEK, ALBEIT WITH SOME  
TIMING AND FOCUS DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH MANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL  
SHORTWAVES. BY SATURDAY, THE 00Z GFS BECOMES QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH  
THE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND FORMS A CLOSED  
LOW THAT LACKS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT, BUT THE 18Z WAS ABLE TO BE  
INCORPORATED INTO THE FRONTS/PRESSURES FORECAST. BY NEXT MONDAY,  
THE ECMWF BECOMES VERY STRONG WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE OREGON  
COAST, WHEREAS THE GFS/CMC FAVOR A MORE MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  
FOR THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS  
WEEKEND, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE AXIS WILL BE POSITIVELY TILTED  
AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PHASING REGARDING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN  
STREAM ENERGY, AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE  
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW.  
 
THE WPC FRONTS/PRESSURES FORECAST WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A  
DETERMINISTIC BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY, AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING  
PERCENTAGES OF THE MEANS THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. FOR QPF, MORE OF  
THE ENSEMBLE BIASED CORRECTED MODEL, ALONG WITH SOME OF THE  
CMC/GFS/ECMWF, WAS USED SINCE THE NBM APPEARS TOO LIGHT WITH ITS  
QPF ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. WILL ENJOY DRY WEATHER AND  
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DISRUPTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE WITH EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS  
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE STRONG  
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
3-6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA,  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN, AND DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.  
FARTHER SOUTH, THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN EMERGING AREA OF SHOWERS  
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE  
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
 
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THE MAJORITY OF THE NATION SHOULD BE  
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR HIGHS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK,  
WITH THE GREATEST WARM DEPARTURES ON THE ORDER OF 15-25 DEGREES  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. WITH THE TROUGH  
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND,  
EXPECT A RETURN TO REALITY WITH HIGHS RUNNING UP TO 15 DEGREES  
BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND  
NORTHEAST. IT SHOULD BE MILD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS  
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.  
 
HAMRICK  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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