063  
FXUS02 KWBC 080650  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
149 AM EST TUE FEB 8 2022  
 
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 11 2022 - 12Z TUE FEB 15 2022  
   
..WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS LIKELY IN THE WORKS FOR  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH, ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF OF  
ALASKA, DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST COAST REGION. THIS  
WILL ABRUPTLY REPLACE THE LONG-STANDING UPPER RIDGE (POSITIVE PNA  
PATTERN) THAT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH  
THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL PROBABLY  
LEAD TO SOME FORM OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY THE END OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL TEND TO  
DISPLACE THE RIDGE AXIS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS, ALTHOUGH  
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN BEFORE, AND RESULTING IN MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL  
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AS THE  
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST REGION LIFTS OUT BY  
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD OVERALL DEPICTION OF  
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
THE 00Z CMC IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING TEXAS ON  
SUNDAY, WHEREAS THE GFS/UKMET/EC ALL SUGGEST A MORE PROGRESSIVE  
SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME, THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS NOT  
EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NEXT GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE BEFORE THE  
COLD FRONT EXITS THE EAST COAST, AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES  
OF AN OFFSHORE LOW FORMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO CAUSE  
ISSUES, BUT FUTURE MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED,  
ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION COMES TO PASS.  
 
THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH FROM THE GULF  
OF ALASKA THAT WILL HERALD A PATTERN CHANGE TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN  
U.S. NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FASTER WITH  
THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THROUGH TUESDAY, COMPARED TO THE  
SLOWER GFS AND THE WELL OFFSHORE 00Z CMC (THE 12Z CMC WAS CLOSER  
TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND IS MORE FAVORED THAN ITS NEWEST 00Z RUN).  
TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE POSITIVE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY (50N 140W)  
ON FEBRUARY 16TH SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE  
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, WHICH IS CLOSER TO  
THE 12Z CMC/00Z ECMWF COMPARED TO RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS THAT ARE  
SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER OREGON.  
 
THE WPC FRONTS/PRESSURES FORECAST WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A  
DETERMINISTIC BLEND THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THEN GRADUALLY  
INCREASING PERCENTAGES OF THE MEANS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR  
QPF, MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE BIASED CORRECTED MODEL, ALONG WITH SOME  
OF THE CMC/GFS/ECMWF, WAS USED SINCE THE NBM APPEARS TOO LIGHT  
WITH ITS QPF ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK  
AND INTO SATURDAY.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
A STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL  
CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW  
FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/MICHIGAN TO PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK.  
THERE WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER  
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE  
REGION. ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL U.S. AND DELIVERS DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE NATION FOR  
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A OCEANIC LOW WILL  
DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING, BUT IS CURRENTLY  
EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MOST OF THE  
PRECIPITATION AND WIND AWAY FROM LAND. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL  
EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW,  
PRECIPITATION MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT TUESDAY ALONG WITH  
INCREASING WINDS.  
 
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THE MAJORITY OF THE NATION SHOULD BE  
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR HIGHS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK,  
WITH THE GREATEST WARM DEPARTURES ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 DEGREES  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY, AND A BRIEF WARM-UP  
FOR THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH THE TROUGH BUILDING IN  
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND, EXPECT A  
RETURN TO REALITY WITH HIGHS RUNNING UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW  
AVERAGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST BY  
SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE MILD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS  
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEST COAST REGION BEGINNING TO  
COOL DOWN WITH THE TROUGH BUILDING IN.  
 
HAMRICK  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page