105  
FXUS02 KWBC 081900  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
159 PM EST TUE FEB 08 2022  
 
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 11 2022 - 12Z TUE FEB 15 2022  
   
..WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE PERSISTENCE OF AN AMPLIFIED EAST  
PACIFIC/WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT  
WEEK AS A TROUGH INITIALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC DROPS  
INTO THE WEST AHEAD OF A NEWLY BUILDING PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE. THIS  
EVOLUTION WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A FLATTER TREND FOR DOWNSTREAM  
FLOW, WITH THE INITIAL WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATING THROUGH THE  
WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. AND THE EASTERN TROUGH DEPARTING FROM THE  
EAST COAST BY NEXT TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PATTERN WILL TEND TO  
FAVOR BELOW-AVERAGE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION OVER  
THE LOWER 48. PARTS OF THE WEST WILL SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COOLING  
TREND WHILE SOME AREAS FARTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE SOME NOTABLE  
TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION  
BUT EMBEDDED DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST. THESE ISSUES INVOLVE  
SPECIFICS OF INITIAL UPPER TROUGH ENERGY CROSSING THE EASTERN HALF  
OF THE COUNTRY/EVENTUAL WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE DEVELOPMENT,  
UPSTREAM ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE  
PATTERN, AND DISTRIBUTION/TIMING OF NORTH PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE WEST NEXT WEEK. THUS FAR THE CONSENSUS  
INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY  
OPEN TO KEEP A POTENTIAL WESTERN ATLANTIC SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH  
OFFSHORE NOT TO BRING MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION TO THE MID-ATLANTIC  
AND NORTHEAST AROUND SUNDAY-MONDAY. HOWEVER A MINORITY OF  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS COULD STILL SUGGEST A LINGERING LOW-END POTENTIAL  
FOR MOISTURE TO EXTEND FARTHER WESTWARD. MEANWHILE MODELS HAVE  
BEEN VARYING CONSIDERABLY FOR SPECIFICS OF THE SURFACE PATTERN  
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. AT LEAST THE  
06Z GFS/GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN RUNS ARRIVED AT SIMILAR  
IDEAS FOR THE NEXT WAVE SO THEIR SCENARIO PROVIDES THE MOST LIKELY  
OPTION AT THIS TIME. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BEEN  
ERRATIC WITH THE DETAILS OF PACIFIC ENERGY COMING INTO THE WEST.  
AGAIN THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS/MEANS SHOWED REASONABLE AGREEMENT  
IN PRINCIPLE, BRINGING AN OPEN SHORTWAVE INTO THE WEST, WHILE  
INDIVIDUAL STRAY RUNS SUCH AS THE 00Z CMC PULLED OFF A LOW  
OFFSHORE. THE 00Z ECMWF COULD BE A LITTLE TOO AMPLIFIED THOUGH.  
THE NEW 12Z CMC HAS ADJUSTED TO THE MODEL/MEAN CONSENSUS AND THE  
12Z ECMWF HAS TONED DOWN ITS TROUGH AMPLITUDE.  
 
BASED ON THE GUIDANCE COMPARISONS THROUGH 06Z DATA, AN OPERATIONAL  
MODEL BLEND WITH GREATER EMPHASIS ON THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF  
TRANSITIONED TO A MODEL/MEAN MIX AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR  
RESPECTIVE MEANS. MAINTAINING CONTINUITY, QPF STAYED CLOSER TO  
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SCENARIO NEAR THE EAST COAT AROUND  
SUNDAY-MONDAY. POPS REPRESENTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WETTER  
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND FAIRLY DRY OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
A STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL  
CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND THEN TRACK INTO  
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN CANADA BY SATURDAY, SPREADING SNOW  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND  
EAST. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST  
AND GREAT LAKES REGION AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  
PARTS OF THE PLAINS/ROCKIES COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BRISK  
WINDS AS A COUPLE COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTHWARD. TRAILING CANADIAN  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.  
WILL DELIVER DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE NATION FOR THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE  
EAST COAST SUNDAY-MONDAY BUT THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE FAR ENOUGH  
OFFSHORE TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AND WIND AWAY FROM  
LAND. THE UPPER TROUGH AND LEADING FRONT REACHING THE WEST EARLY  
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY LIGHT TO  
MODERATE) AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING WINDS TO THE REGION.  
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEPEND ON  
SYSTEM DETAILS THAT REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  
 
A MAJORITY OF THE WEST WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM  
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THE WARMEST ANOMALIES  
(PLUS 10-15F AND LOCALLY HIGHER) TO BE CENTERED OVER AND NEAR  
CALIFORNIA WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY CHALLENGE OR EXCEED DAILY  
RECORD VALUES. THEN THE UPPER TROUGH/LEADING COLD FRONT MOVING  
INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A COOLING TREND,  
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES F ON EITHER SIDE  
OF NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY. FARTHER TO THE EAST, THE PLAINS SHOULD  
SEE PLUS 10-20F ANOMALIES FOR MAX AND/OR MIN TEMPERATURES ON  
FRIDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A BRIEF COOLER PERIOD DURING  
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO 5-20F ABOVE  
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SEE ITS WARMEST  
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY-SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING FRONT. PLUS 5-15F ANOMALIES WILL BE COMMON AND PARTS  
OF THE NORTHEAST COULD SEE LOWS 20F OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL ON ONE OR  
BOTH DAYS. THE COLD SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REACH THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND THEN CONTINUE TOWARD THE EAST  
COAST, LEADING TO ONE OR MORE DAYS OF MAX/MIN READINGS OF 10-20F  
BELOW NORMAL WITH COLDEST ANOMALIES TENDING TO FOCUS OVER THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE EAST.  
 
RAUSCH/HAMRICK  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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