976  
FXUS02 KWBC 100657  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
156 AM EST THU FEB 10 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 13 2022 - 12Z THU FEB 17 2022  
   
..WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS COMING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A  
STRONG TROUGH, ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, DROPS  
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST COAST REGION. THIS WILL ABRUPTLY  
REPLACE THE LONG-STANDING UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER THE  
WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WHICH IS  
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL TEND TO DISPLACE  
THE RIDGE AXIS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS, ALTHOUGH LESS  
AMPLIFIED THAN BEFORE, AND RESULTING IN MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW  
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AS THE DEEP  
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST REGION LIFTS OUT BY EARLY-MID  
NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE AN OFFSHORE LOW THAT  
DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST FOR LATE SUNDAY AND THEN LIFTS  
NORTHEASTWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND, WITH INCREASING  
CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON  
THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH  
THAT BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL SOME  
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE EASTERN U.S.  
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND ITS ROLE IN OFFSHORE SURFACE  
CYCLOGENESIS. THE 12Z CMC WAS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A CLOSED  
LOW FORMING FARTHER WEST AND HAD THE MAIN QPF AXIS WELL INLAND  
COMPARED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, SO IT WAS NOT INCORPORATED FOR  
THE FRONTS/PRESSURES FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE 00Z CMC IS MORE  
COMPATIBLE WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE WPC FRONTS/PRESSURES  
FORECAST WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND  
THROUGH MONDAY, AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING PERCENTAGES OF THE  
MEANS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
AN OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EXITING COLD  
FRONT ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS. THERE HAS BEEN A VERY SLIGHT  
WESTWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT THIS  
STILL KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF THE COAST.  
HOWEVER, SOME SNOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF  
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA AND INTO  
VIRGINIA. THIS MAY BEGIN AS A COLD RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.  
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS FURTHER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND  
ADVECTS COPIOUS GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD, WITH SOME STRONG STORMS  
POSSIBLE IN THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP. THERE MAY ALSO BE  
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST STATES.  
 
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, BELOW AVERAGE READINGS ARE EXPECTED BY  
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE STRONG  
COLD FRONT USHERS IN A RENEWED ROUND OF COLD WEATHER. HIGHS UP TO  
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. IT SHOULD BE MILD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS  
MOST OF THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH THE WEST COAST  
REGION BEGINNING TO COOL DOWN WITH THE TROUGH BUILDING IN, AFTER  
ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.  
 
HAMRICK  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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