600  
FXUS02 KWBC 110658  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
157 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2022  
 
VALID 12Z MON FEB 14 2022 - 12Z FRI FEB 18 2022  
 
...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MID- TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH  
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL U.S. AND WINTRY  
WEATHER POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST TO INTERIOR NORTHEAST...  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK, AS A POTENT UPPER  
LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK  
AND DEVELOPS INTO A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE  
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS UPPER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SURFACE  
CYCLOGENESIS AND STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE CENTRAL U.S.,  
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PRODUCING  
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO  
FRIDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN SOUTHERN AREAS,  
WHILE SNOW AND WINTRY WEATHER ARE LIKELY ON THE NORTHERN AND  
WESTERN SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF  
THE PLAINS TO MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 12/18Z CYCLE IS QUITE AGREEABLE WITH THE  
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED  
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WEST, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ITS  
ORIGINS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS AGREE IN  
PRINCIPLE THAT TROUGHING IN THE EAST WILL LIFT AND THE RIDGING  
ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD SHOULD GET PUSHED  
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AROUND TUESDAY AND THE EAST ON  
WEDNESDAY WHILE FLATTENING SOMEWHAT. THUS A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF  
THE 12Z ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, AND 12/18Z GFS WAS UTILIZED EARLY IN  
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR THE WPC FORECAST.  
 
AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS WHEN GREATER  
DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO ARISE, AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS  
A PACIFIC RIDGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND THEN ENTERS THE NORTHWEST  
AROUND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND THOSE FARTHER NORTH INTO  
CANADA SHOW MORE VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODELS IN  
THEIR EVOLUTION. THE 12/18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOWED  
REASONABLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS EACH OTHER, WITH SHORTWAVES IN THE  
SOUTHWEST AND IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE BROADER  
TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WHILE THE 12Z CMC INDICATED A MORE PHASED  
SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST JOINED WITH THE NORTHERN  
STREAM. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY  
WITH THE DETAILS, AND 00Z GUIDANCE STILL DEMONSTRATES THESE  
SHORTWAVE DIFFERENCES. THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH  
AND SHORTWAVES WITHIN IT WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POSITION OF THE COLD  
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL PATTERN IS  
STILL REASONABLY AGREEABLE FOR A DAY 6-7 FORECAST. THE WPC  
FORECAST INTRODUCED AND INCREASED THE PROPORTION OF THE GEFS AND  
EC ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS 6-7 OF THE FORECAST TO MINIMIZE  
INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN U.S. MONDAY,  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST, WITH  
COASTAL/LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, BUT TOTALS SHOULD  
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THERE. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS  
THE SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATES IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND ADVECTS  
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE  
PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS, AND EVENTUALLY THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD. STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FLASH  
FLOODING CONCERNS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS, BUT WITH  
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THESE POTENTIAL THREATS AT THIS  
POINT. IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE  
SYSTEM, ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL PARTS  
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST/GREAT  
LAKES REGION INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND, WHILE MIXED  
PRECIPITATION/ICE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE TRANSITION ZONE  
BETWEEN THE SNOW AND RAIN.  
 
THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE EVIDENT IN TEMPERATURES NEXT  
WEEK AS WELL. WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH THE INCOMING TROUGH. MEANWHILE  
THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL  
WITH LOWS 15-25F ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY BEFORE THESE ANOMALIES  
SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE  
AND OHIO VALLEYS THURSDAY. THE EASTERN SEABOARD CAN EXPECT COLDER  
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY 10-20 DEGREES ON MONDAY BEFORE  
MODERATING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.  
 
TATE  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page