757  
FXUS02 KWBC 180712  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
212 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2022  
 
VALID 12Z MON FEB 21 2022 - 12Z FRI FEB 25 2022  
 
...EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK HEAVY SNOW THREAT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT  
BASIN/ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN  
NORTHEAST...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN/RUNOFF THREAT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE  
VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY-FRIDAY, WITH A HEAVY SNOW/ICE  
THREAT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS  
TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY AS AN EARLY WEEK CENTRAL U.S.  
ARCTIC SURGE SPREADS EASTWARD...  
 
   
..PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGHS  
DIG OVER A COOLING WEST AND AS EJECTING ENERGIES AND INDUCED  
FRONTAL WAVES PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM OVER A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE  
COOLED CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. AND A WARMING SOUTHEAST/EAST UPPER  
RIDGE.  
 
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A QUITE SIMILAR MID-LARGER SCALE FLOW  
EVOLUTION NEXT WEEK IN A PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.  
A COMPOSITE OF OVERALL WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE  
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH  
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS PROVIDES A SEEMINGLY GOOD FORECAST  
BASIS THAT TENDS TO MITIGATE LINGERING SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM  
VARIANCES WHILE MAINTAINING GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS ARE LIKELY TO FOCUS EARLY TO MID  
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES AS AMPLE TROUGH  
ENERGIES DIG INTO A AMPLIFIED WESTERN U.S. TROUGH POSITION. A WAVY  
FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC SURGE SET TO DIG THROUGH  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HAVE  
UPPER SUPPORT TO FAVOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NORTHERN NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, AMPLE  
UPPER ENERGIES WORKING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEK WILL  
ALSO ACT TO INDUCE WAVES ALONG A LEAD FRONT AND TAP DEEPENING  
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO  
FUEL A HEAVY RAIN AND RUNOFF THREAT FROM THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STARTING EARLY  
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE  
WAVY/SLOWED TRAILING FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALSO SUPPORT  
A HEAVY SNOW/ICE THREAT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND  
MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY AS  
THE EARLY WEEK CENTRAL U.S. ARCTIC BLAST SPREADS EASTWARD. EXPECT  
A FEW RECORD COLD TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS TO  
STARKLY CONTRAST A FEW RECORD WARM PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES UNDER  
THE SOUTHEAST/EAST UPPER RIDGE.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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