457  
FXUS02 KWBC 220704  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
204 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2022  
 
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 25 2022 - 12Z TUE MAR 01 2022  
 
...HEAVY SNOW AND ICE THREAT SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY...  
 
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR LARGER SCALE  
PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES AND A GUIDANCE  
COMPOSITE SEEMS OK FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES WITH THE  
HANDLING OF SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED SYSTEMS IS MORE VARIED,  
PARTICULARLY FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERN STREAM  
ENERGIES DIGGING INTO THE WEST BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND TO A LESSER  
EXTENT THE 12 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE OVERALL MORE  
AMPLIFIED/LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 18 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 12  
UTC CANADIAN. PREFERRED A SOLUTION SLIGHTLY ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED  
SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS, MOST IN LINE WITH THE  
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, CONSIDERING THE BULK OF GUIDANCE WORKS AN  
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE UPSTREAM INTO THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, THE  
00 UTC MODELS DO NOT OFFER GREAT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE  
SUSPECT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.  
 
   
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
A POTENT EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH  
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.  
MOISTURE WILL STREAM OVER A LEADING FRONT TO FUEL ENHANCED  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGH PRESSURE/COLD AIR DAMMED NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. FRONTAL WAVE APPROACH AND COASTAL LOW  
REFORMATION WILL FAVOR A PRONOUNCED SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND  
ICE ON THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, WITH  
LIFT ENHANCED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET.  
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY IN THE  
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL INCLUDE FRIDAY SOME RECORD COLD  
POCKETS BOTH OVER CA/AZ AND THE PLAINS AS WELL AS LINGERING RECORD  
PRE-FRONTAL WARMTH UNDER AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, THE UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN WILL FAVOR A  
DRIER PATTERN FOR MANY. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH  
THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY-MONDAY WHERE UNCERTAIN  
EJECTING SHORTWAVE AMPLITUDE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SWATH  
OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER EXCEPTION MAY BE WITH ADVENT OF  
MODEST PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING THIS  
WEEKEND WITH THE LIKELY SLOW APPROACH OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC SYSTEMS.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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