708  
FXUS02 KWBC 240643  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
143 AM EST THU FEB 24 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 27 2022 - 12Z THU MAR 03 2022  
   
..PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
OVERALL COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE SLATED FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER  
48 STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE FOLLOWED BY  
BROAD MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES SPREADING FROM THE WEST TO THE  
EAST EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IN TRANSITION TO LESS AMPLIFIED  
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A  
COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE 18 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN, THE 12 UTC  
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 01 UTC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS  
IN A PATTERN WITH NEAR AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY. MODELS AND  
ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN  
EVOLUTION, BUT CONTINUE TO OFFER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND  
VARIANCE WITH SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED WEATHER FEATURES. COMPOSITE  
BLENDING TENDS TO MITIGATE THESE DIFFERENCES CONSISTENT WITH THEIR  
VARIED INDIVIDUAL PREDICTABILITY. THE STRATEGY ACTS TO MAINTAIN  
MAX WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY AND A COMPOSITE OF LATEST 00 UTC MODEL  
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BY THIS  
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRIER  
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE  
PERIODIC LIGHT NORTHERN TIER SNOWS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT  
LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. ALSO EXPECT A SWATH OF MODEST  
PRECIPITATION WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS  
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE COLD RAINS, BUT  
WITH SOME SNOW/ICE THREAT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SWATH  
OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITATION WILL TO DEVELOP FOR  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA THIS WEEKEND WITH SLOW APPROACH  
OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC SYSTEMS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO  
INCREASE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA AND INCREASINGLY  
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY AND MID NEXT  
WEEK WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LEAD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH  
AND PASSAGE. THIS PATTERN WILL INCLUDING LOCALLY TERRAIN ENHANCING  
HEAVIER SNOWS.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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