961  
FXUS02 KWBC 241855  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
154 PM EST THU FEB 24 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 27 2022 - 12Z THU MAR 03 2022  
   
..PATTERN OVERVIEW
 
 
OVERALL COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE SLATED FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER  
48 STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE FOLLOWED BY  
BROAD MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES SPREADING FROM THE WEST TO THE  
EAST EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IN TRANSITION TO LESS AMPLIFIED  
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A  
GENERAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND THROUGH DAY 5 WITH LESS  
WEIGHTING TO THE 00Z CMC ON DAY 4. GREATER WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE  
00Z UK/EC SINCE THEY APPEARED TO FIND A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION  
BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z CMC WITH RESPECT TO A SHORTWAVE  
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WEST ON DAY 5. AN ENSEMBLE BLEND, COMPOSED  
OF THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS/CMCE, AS WELL AS A BIT OF 00Z EC AND  
06Z GEFS WERE UTILIZED ON DAYS 6 AND 7. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER  
A REASONABLY SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION, BUT CONTINUE  
TO OFFER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND VARIANCE WITH SMALLER  
SCALE EMBEDDED WEATHER FEATURES SUCH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING  
ITS WAY THROUGH THE WEST ON DAY 4.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BY THIS  
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRIER  
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A PAIR OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS WILL LIKELY  
PRODUCE PERIODIC LIGHT NORTHERN TIER SNOWS FROM THE UPPER  
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. ALSO, EXPECT A SWATH OF  
MODEST PRECIPITATION TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY.  
THIS WILL BE MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE COLD RAIN,  
BUT WITH SOME SNOW/ICE THREAT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE  
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION, A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER  
EVENT WILL TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN  
CA THIS WEEKEND WITH SLOW APPROACH OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC SYSTEMS.  
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA AND INCREASINGLY SPREAD ACROSS THE  
NORTHWESTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER  
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LEAD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH AND PASSAGE.  
THIS PATTERN WILL INCLUDE LOCALLY TERRAIN ENHANCING HEAVIER SNOWS.  
 
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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