495  
FXUS02 KWBC 281726  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1225 PM EST MON FEB 28 2022  
 
VALID 12Z THU MAR 03 2022 - 12Z MON MAR 07 2022  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL EMERGING FOR THE MID-SOUTH AND OHIO  
VALLEY SUNDAY/NEXT MONDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FROM THE  
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NORTHEAST...  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT  
A STEADILY BUILDING EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE FROM LATE THIS  
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH MEAN TROUGHING  
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. THIS GENERAL PATTERN  
APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. AHEAD  
OF THE DEVELOPING MEAN TROUGH, EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN INITIAL  
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY DISPLACE AN  
EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A BROAD  
ZONE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD EXIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MEAN  
TROUGH AXIS. LEADING ENERGY MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE WEST WILL  
SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN BRING A BROAD AREA  
OF VARIOUS PRECIP TYPES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. AS ITS NORTHEASTWARD  
EJECTION SUPPORTS A PLAINS THROUGH UPPER GREAT LAKES SURFACE  
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TRAILING FRONT MAY  
BECOME A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD OVER AN INCREASING PORTION OF THE  
WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE EAST.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
GUIDANCE OVERALL SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY FOR THE  
EXPECTED LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE  
SYSTEM VARIANCES REMAINS RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENT THOUGH, MAINLY  
INTO DAYS 5-7. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS ACCORDINGLY  
DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF COMPATIBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE 06  
UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN DAYS 3-5  
(THURSDAY-SATURDAY) ALONG WITH THE 13 UTC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS  
(NBM). BLENDED THE BEST COMPATIBLE 06 UTC GFS/GEFS AND 00 UTC  
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH THE 13 UTC NBM FOR DAYS 6/7  
(SUNDAY-NEXT MONDAY) AMID GROWING FORECAST SPREAD, ALBEIT IN A  
PATTERN WITH OVERALL BETTER THAN NORMAL PREDICTABILITY. WPC  
PRODUCT CONTINUITY IS WELL MAINTAINED IN THIS MANNER.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK WILL SPREAD A BROAD  
AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE (THOUGH PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVIER)  
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SCATTERED  
PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
PERIOD DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE DETAILS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR  
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN  
HALF OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY  
NEW ENGLAND. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL  
CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF  
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY  
OVER THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN THE  
PRECIPITATION/WIND SPECIFICS IS FAIRLY LOW. RAINFALL OF VARYING  
INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE  
CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.  
GUIDANCE IS SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WITHIN AN  
AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY  
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS THE FRONT DECELERATES WHILE  
IT BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH FLOW ALOFT AND INTERACTS WITH LOW  
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS LATE-PERIOD  
MOISTURE SHIELD WILL CONTAIN WINTRY WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR A  
MAIN AXIS OF SNOW/ICE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO  
NORTHERN NORTHEAST.  
 
LATE THIS WEEK EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, AND INCLUDING BACK  
TO THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. HIGHEST ANOMALIES  
SHOULD BE IN THE PLUS 15-25F RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ON  
THE OTHER HAND THE NORTHERN TIER MAY SEE READINGS UP TO 10-20F  
BELOW NORMAL. COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE WEST STARTING LATE  
THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, YIELDING A BROAD AREA OF  
TEMPERATURES 5-15F BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE  
EASTERN U.S. WILL SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES  
SATURDAY-MONDAY, GENERALLY PLUS 10-20F ANOMALIES FOR HIGHS AND UP  
TO PLUS 20-25F ANOMALIES FOR MORNING LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY  
CHALLENGE RECORD HIGHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  
 
RAUSCH/SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDICES ARE AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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