898  
FXUS02 KWBC 051853  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
152 PM EST SAT MAR 05 2022  
 
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 08 2022 - 12Z SAT MAR 12 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
STRONG RIDGE AXES OFF EITHER COAST SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE CONUS  
WITHIN BROAD AND REINFORCED TROUGHING THROUGH THIS NEXT WEEK.  
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING FROM A LOW GYRE CENTERED OVER BAFFIN ISLAND TO  
BEGIN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT SOUTH DOWN THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT,  
PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY  
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A RESULTING  
LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE  
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY. AHEAD  
OF THIS TROUGH CAN BE EXPECTED CONTINUED WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE IT  
SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY, AS WELL AS TWO ROUNDS  
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC.  
 
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SLOWER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS SEEN WITH  
THE 06Z (AND NOW 12Z) GFS/ AND THE 00Z ECMWF, PARTICULARLY BY 12Z  
THUR WITH THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST. THE  
00Z UKMET/CMC ARE MUCH QUICKER TO SHIFT THIS TROUGH AXIS NEUTRAL  
AND ADVANCE IT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BOTH THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z  
ECENS MEANS WERE NOT AS SLOW/POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THE TROUGH, SO  
THE BULK OF THE MODEL PREFERENCE WERE THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECENS  
THROUGH DAY 5 BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE GEFS/ECENS BY DAY 6.  
 
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL REINFORCE AND  
AMPLIFY TROUGHING OVER INTERIOR WEST WHICH LOOKS TO MAINTAIN THE  
POSITIVE TILT AS IT PRESSES SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS SPREADS DOWN THE HIGH  
PLAINS FROM CO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW  
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST  
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING SHIFTS  
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAKING FOR WIDESPREAD  
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST ALONG A COLD  
FRONT ON DAY 4 THAT SETTLES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST/FLORIDA/EASTERN  
GULF COAST FOR DAYS 5/6 AND POSSIBLY 7. HEAVY SNOW, WITH SNOW  
LEVELS DROPPING TO THE VALLEYS BEFORE ENDING, SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LEE LOW SHIFTS DOWN THE  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY, SNOW DEVELOPS OVER THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER  
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS NOTED BY THE  
DAYS 5/6 WPC WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK.  
 
ARCTIC-SOURCED AIR ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND IS  
REINFORCED BY EVEN COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHIFT SENDS A COLD  
SURGE BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN  
GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL IN MT WEDNESDAY INTENSIFY TO 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
(WITH MANY AREAS AROUND ZERO TO MINUS SINGLE DIGITS) AND EXPAND  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION OCCURS AS THE COLD AIR MASS  
SPILLS WELL INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTH  
TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ANOMALIES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL ARE LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED. THIS COLD AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT  
EAST FRIDAY, REACHING THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WHERE COLD AIR  
DAMMING LOOKS TO LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE  
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.  
 
JACKSON  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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