622  
FXUS02 KWBC 092138  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
436 PM EST WED MAR 09 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 12 2022 - 12Z WED MAR 16 2022  
   
..WINTER STORM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AND POWERFUL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM  
MAINE SATURDAY EVENING WITH TRAILING MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SHIFTING  
EAST/SOUTHEAST OFF THE EAST COAST/GULF COAST SUNDAY WITH  
SUBFREEZING TEMPS REACHING THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST COASTS SUNDAY  
MORNING. AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A  
TROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND ANOTHER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS  
WEEKEND WAVE OUT WEST SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST THROUGH  
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE  
MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, THE SECOND WESTERN WAVE MAY BECOME MORE  
POSITIVELY TILTED/LINGER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE  
MIDWEEK.  
 
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOTED WITH THE DEPARTING  
STRONG LOW SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
TROUGH PUSHING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z CMC IS MUCH LESS  
AMPLIFIED THAN CONSENSUS, SO DETERMINISTIC WEIGHTING FAVORED THE  
00Z ECMWF/UKMET AND THE 06Z GFS FOR DAYS 3-5 AS THE TROUGH DIGS  
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
THE NEXT OPENING LOW/TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY HAS  
SOME AMPLITUDE UNCERTAINTY (EC MORE AMPLIFIED) AND THE SYSTEM  
TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST IS SHOWN IN BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND  
06Z GFS, BUT THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE (WITH THE 12Z GFS EVEN  
SLOWER), SO THE DAYS 6/7 WPC FORECAST INCORPORATES 00Z ECENS AND  
06Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS TO HELP MITIGATE THESE DIFFERENCES WHILE  
KEEPING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES AWAY  
FROM MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT, STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER  
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY.  
WRAP AROUND SNOW BANDS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND/NY. THE TRAILING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE  
AND QUICKLY BRING AN END TO THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LOWER  
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES  
OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE  
GULF COAST, SOUTHEAST, AND OHIO VALLEY WITH SUBFREEZING  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING DOWN TO THE EASTERN GULF  
COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH RECORD LOWS LIKELY IN SEVERAL  
LOCATIONS.  
 
MEANWHILE, RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATE  
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE.  
THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO DIRECT AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER  
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HIGHER TERRAIN  
SNOW ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,  
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS WILL BUILD  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH  
SHOULD BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE VERY CHILLY AND SNOWY WEATHER  
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN  
OVER THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING  
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TRACKING  
THROUGH.  
 
JACKSON  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
HAZARDS:  
- HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN,  
SAT-TUE, MAR 12-MAR 15.  
- HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE  
NORTHEAST, AND THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS, SAT, MAR 12.  
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, MON-TUE, MAR 14-MAR 15.  
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, SAT, MAR 12.  
- HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE  
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, SUN-MON, MAR  
13-MAR 14.  
- HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, SAT, MAR 12.  
- SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE  
MID-ATLANTIC, SAT, MAR 12.  
- FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  
- FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE  
OHIO VALLEY.  
- FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
- HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE MID-ATLANTIC,  
THE NORTHEAST, AND THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS, SAT-SUN, MAR 12-MAR 13.  
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS,  
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT  
LAKES, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHWEST, SAT, MAR 12.  
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE GREAT  
LAKES, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE  
SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, SUN, MAR 13.  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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