185  
FXUS02 KWBC 102034  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
334 PM EST THU MAR 10 2022  
 
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 13 2022 - 12Z THU MAR 17 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
TWO MAIN WAVES AFFECT THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE WILL  
DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GULF COAST SUNDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO OR  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECOND, STRONGER WAVE, WILL  
BRING A QUICK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE  
SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY WEDNESDAY  
INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN, UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM THE  
WESTERN THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S..  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET AND THE 06Z GFS (AND  
NOW THE 12Z GFS) ON THE LOW THAT OPENS INTO A WAVE OVER THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE  
ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TURNING EAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH  
TUESDAY (WHICH IS A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN PRIOR MODEL CONSENSUS).  
THE 00Z CMC, HOWEVER, WAS MORE OPEN WITH THE WAVE TO BEGIN, MAKING  
FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WEST THAT  
LAYS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY. THEREFORE, A BLEND  
OF THREE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE USED FOR THE WPC FORECAST DAYS  
3-5. UNCERTAINTY WITH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE INTO  
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DOES WARRANT INCORPORATION OF  
THE MORE AGREEABLE 00Z ECENS AND 06Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS  
6/7. OUT WEST, THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE  
TROUGH, BRINGING IT INTO CENTRAL CA ON TUESDAY WHILE THE 06Z GFS  
(AND NOW THE 12Z GFS) FEATURES TWO WAVES THAT REACH THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE SOUTHEAST, THE  
06Z GFS TAKES A MUCH MORE NORTHERLY TRACK (WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW  
MORE NORTHERLY AND FASTER), MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY  
WHILE THE 00Z ECWMF MAINTAINS AN EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE DEEP  
SOUTH BEFORE TURNING UP THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND A DEPARTING POWERFUL LOW MOVING FROM NEW  
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST  
WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MIN TEMPS AROUND FREEZING OVER INTERIOR  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, BUT NOT AS COLD AS SUNDAY MORNING WHICH  
WILL FEATURE A HARD FREEZE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH  
FLORIDA. AFTER MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND  
EAST WILL REBOUND TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
MEANWHILE, MOUNTAIN SNOWS WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FIRST WAVE.  
HOWEVER, AS THIS WAVE ENCOUNTERS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN STREAM  
ENERGY, AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT  
AND WITH THE ADDITION OF GULF MOISTURE, RAPIDLY INCREASING RAIN  
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY  
MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TRACK LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY. THERE WAS FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND THE  
00Z ECMWF WHICH WERE USED TO ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THURSDAY. OUT WEST, THE SECOND TROUGH WILL DIRECT AN  
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT,  
BRINGING MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS TO  
WESTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE  
TROUGHS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 15  
TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY FOR THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE  
NORTHEAST THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE WINTRY  
WEATHER CURRENTLY OVER THESE AREAS.  
 
JACKSON  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
HAZARDS:  
- HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN,  
SUN-TUE, MAR 13-MAR 15.  
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, SUN-MON, MAR 13-MAR 14.  
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, TUE, MAR 15.  
- HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE  
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, SUN-TUE, MAR  
13-MAR 15.  
- HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MON, MAR 14.  
- FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  
- FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE OHIO VALLEY.  
- HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE MID-ATLANTIC,  
THE NORTHEAST, AND THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS, SUN, MAR 13.  
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE  
MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, SUN, MAR 13.  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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