959  
FXUS02 KWBC 110628  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
128 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2022  
 
VALID 12Z MON MAR 14 2022 - 12Z FRI MAR 18 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
IN A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN, A COUPLE NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEMS  
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK. THE FIRS SYSTEM DIVES  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE A COMPACT AND  
MODERATELY STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO  
EASTERN U.S. MID TO LATE WEEK, OFFERING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES  
REACHING 10-20 ABOVE NORMAL.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
IN GENERAL, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE CONUS OFFERED VERY GOOD  
AGREEMENT IN THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES AND EVOLUTION IN THE 500 MB  
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES WERE ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUES-WED, WHERE  
SOME NORTH-SOUTH WAFFLING BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS  
CONTINUES. THE GFS HAS BEEN A NORTHERN AND FASTER SOLUTION WHILE  
THE CMC WAS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THE ECMWF/UKMET OFFERED A GOOD  
CONSENSUS AND WAS HEAVILY INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST BLEND ALONG  
WITH THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z CMC. TOWARD DAYS 6-7, AS THE NEXT  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S., THERE ARE SOME  
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WHERE THE GFS SHOWS ITS FAST BIAS  
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE INCREASING SPREAD, HEAVIER  
WEIGHTS OF THE ECENS/GEFS WERE INCLUDED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY  
WHILE ADJUSTING FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,  
THERE WAS ABOVE AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN THE  
AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH  
MONDAY-TUESDAY.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE READINGS WELL INTO THE 30S ARE FORECAST  
AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN FLORIDA, WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS THEN  
DROPS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY-TUESDAY THEN THE GULF  
COAST/SOUTHEAST MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY DRAW UP MODEST AMOUNTS  
OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT AND COULD COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT  
INSTABILITY TO BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION. FOR  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AIMS ON  
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OF  
SEVERAL INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY  
BENEFICIAL BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES COULD DEVELOP FOR SOME OF  
THE MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS. WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 5000-6000  
FT, THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES COULD SEE  
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY ELEVATION SNOWFALL. A TASTE OF SPRING-LIKE  
TEMPERATURES IS ALSO GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO  
EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING 10 TO 20 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TO GREAT  
LAKES.  
 
TAYLOR  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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