117  
FXUS02 KWBC 112049  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
346 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2022  
 
VALID 12Z MON MAR 14 2022 - 12Z FRI MAR 18 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
TWO SYSTEMS IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ARE NOTED OVER THE LOWER 48 NEXT  
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND  
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING  
NORTHEAST, PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY.  
MEANWHILE, AN ONGOING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
SHIFTS DOWN TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF  
THE NEXT WAVE THAT CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TUESDAY.  
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL  
AND EASTERN U.S. BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES MID TO LATE WEEK,  
OFFERING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES REACHING 10-20 ABOVE NORMAL.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS  
NOTED IN THE IN THE MAIN SURFACE AND 500MB FEATURES AND EVOLUTION  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTH-SOUTH WAFFLING BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON THE  
PROGRESSION/AMPLITUDE OF THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST TUES-WED HAVE DIMINISHED, PARTICULARLY WITH THE 12Z GFS  
THAT IS A BIT DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW COMPARED TO  
THE 06Z GFS WHICH IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z  
ECMWF/CMC. THE 00Z CMC IS STILL SLOWER STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST, SO A FAIRLY EVENLY  
DISTRIBUTED BLEND AMONG THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC AND 06Z GFS INTO  
DAY 5 FAVORS THE 00Z CMC LESS WITH THE ADDITION OF ENSEMBLE MEANS  
FOR DAYS 6/7 TO REPLACE THE UKMET (WHICH WE ONLY GET 5 DAYS WORTH  
OF DATA). FURTHERMORE, THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT  
WAVE OUT WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS  
AMPLIFIED, SO THEY ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTS TO  
THE GULF COAST SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TUESDAY AND  
OVER THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DRAW UP  
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT AND COULD COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT  
INSTABILITY TO BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION. WITH  
A BIT OF A SLOWER SOLUTION TO THE LOW, THERE IS NOW A MARGINAL  
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT  
WHICH IS AN AREA CURRENTLY RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN AND ALREADY HAD  
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK GOING INTO TODAY. THE  
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
AS IT PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BRINGING BENEFICIAL  
RAINFALL AND HEAVY ELEVATION SNOWFALL.  
A TASTE OF SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES IS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR MUCH  
OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK UNDER THE RIDGE BETWEEN  
THE TWO SYSTEMS. DAYTIME HIGHS REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
ON TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
JACKSON  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
HAZARDS:  
- HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN,  
MON-TUE, MAR 14-MAR 15.  
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, MON, MAR 14.  
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, TUE, MAR 15.  
- HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE  
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, MON-TUE, MAR  
14-MAR 15.  
- SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MON, MAR  
14.  
- SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY, TUE, MAR 15.  
- FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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