926  
FXUS02 KWBC 120701  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
200 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2022  
 
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 15 2022 - 12Z SAT MAR 19 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
SEVERAL ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE NOTED OVER THE LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK IN  
SPLIT FLOW. A LEADING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS FROM  
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEFORE  
LIFTING NORTHEAST AND OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY  
IN A WET PATTERN. ANOTHER WEATHER FOCUSING UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH  
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WITH A NORTHERN COMPONENT PUSHING EASTWARD  
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MID-LATER NEXT WEEK AS A SEPARATE  
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MEANWHILE PROGRESSES OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN  
TIER THAT MAY LEAD TO FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS AND AN INCREASINGLY  
MOIST PATTERN INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. HEADING INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS OVERALL SEEM REASONABLY WELL  
CLUSTERED TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY AND A COMPOSITE OF THE  
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ALONG WITH THE 01 UTC NBM PROVIDES A GOOD  
FORECAST STARTING POINT IN A PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL FORECAST  
SPREAD. THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE  
SOLUTION THAN THE 18 UTC GEFS/GEFS , ESPECIALLY WITH THE LEAD  
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN FLOW  
SEPARATION AND CLOSED LOW NATURE. LATEST 00 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE TRENDS SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE  
SOLUTION. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY DEGRADES INTO DAYS 6/7 AND A  
TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF BEST CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM 12 UTC  
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEMS  
REASONABLE.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TUESDAY AND OVER  
THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DRAW UP  
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT AND COULD COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT  
INSTABILITY TO BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION. WITH  
A BIT OF A SLOWER SOLUTION TO THE LOW, THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH IS  
AN AREA CURRENTLY RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN AND ALREADY HAD ABOVE  
NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK GOING INTO TODAY. THE  
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
AS IT PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BRINGING BENEFICIAL  
RAINFALL AND HEAVY ELEVATION SNOWFALL, WITH ACTIVITY SPREAD INLAND  
ACROSS THE WEST WITH SYSTEM PROGRESSION.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page