005  
FXUS02 KWBC 150654  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
253 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2022  
 
VALID 12Z FRI MAR 18 2022 - 12Z TUE MAR 22 2022  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH INCREASING AMPLITUDE IS  
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE INITIAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
FRIDAY WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN  
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO NEXT  
MONDAY, A MUCH STRONGER AND AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS  
THE WESTERN U.S., AND THEN REACHING THE PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY AND  
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING A BIT LESS  
PROGRESSIVE BY THEN. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD,  
BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE WESTERN U.S., AND EVOLVE INTO A  
POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED, AND  
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY OSCILLATE BETWEEN NEAR NORMAL AND WELL  
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
OVERALL, THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE INDICATES GOOD SYNOPTIC  
SCALE AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST, INCLUDING THE  
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST  
AND THEN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING  
THAT THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN TO THE NORTHWEST OF  
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME  
PERIOD, WITH THE LATEST RUN EDGING CLOSER TO THE PREFERRED  
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS ALSO SLIGHTLY  
STRONGER WITH THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN TROUGH, BUT SIMILAR IN REGARD  
TO TIMING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT EVOLVES OVER THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL  
GUIDANCE, AND THE GFS PROBABLY CAPTURES THE INTENSITY BEST  
COMPARED TO THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER CMC/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD BRING SOME MODERATE  
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ON  
THE NORTHWEST/COLD SIDE OF THE LOW, THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED  
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE THERMAL PROFILES FOR  
WINTER WEATHER WILL KEEP THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DAY  
4 GENERALLY LOW. FINALLY, THE ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE  
WESTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK  
WILL BE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL AND WELCOMED PRECIPITATION ACROSS  
DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY  
RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT  
WEEK AS THIS STORM SYSTEM TAPS INTO INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.  
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, AHEAD OF THE  
VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME DIPS TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS  
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND INTERIOR WEST AS THE NEXT LARGE  
SCALE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OWING TO CLOUDS AND  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
HAMRICK  
 
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC  
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 

 
 
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